Virus cases disturbing, but vaccine working
Epidemiologist: ‘I’m very optimistic for the summer’
Despite Michigan having the highest number of COVID-19 cases in the country, sifting through all the data shows that the vaccine is working.
That is one positive — and it’s a big one — in a sea of disturbing COVID-19 data.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said the state could drop all restrictions and fully reopen this summer during a Tuesday night appearance on CNN.
Sarah Lyon-Callo, Ph.D, director of the bureau of epidemiology and population health for the MDHHS, agrees.
“It’s difficult to predict what our case rate will be this summer. Given the impact we are seeing with the vaccination I would not anticipate we would be at these levels of cases during that time,’’ Lyon-Callo said during a media briefing on Wednesday. “We are working hard to leverage our vaccine strategy as well as our testing strategy to reduce the spread.’’
She said the state was able to get doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine to counties that were experiencing some of the highest rate increases in the state so they could get that vaccine out to those under age 60.
“I’m anticipating that we will not look this way in the summer. Now with COVID, I guess I should learn not to say things like that in public, because we don’t know what the virus will do,’’ Lyon-Callo said. “However, based on what I understand now how the virus works and how the vaccine is working and how the vaccine campaign is going, I’m very optimistic for the summer.’’
At the current time, however, the picture is not pretty.
Michigan leads the country with a seven-day average of 471 cases per 100,000 according to the Centers for Disease Control.
Overall in the state there were an additional 1,671 cases each day for the week ending April 3 compared to the previous week. There were an additional 3,863 cases each day compared to week Feb. 19.
Since that date, the
number of cases have been highest among those under 70 years of age, according to the MDHHS. Nearly 57% of seniors in Michigan ages 65 and older have been fully vaccinated.
While two weeks ago the 10-19 age group was the most infected, that has shifted now to ages 20-29 with an average daily case rate of 726.4 per million which is up 433% since Feb. 19. This ranks the highest of all age groups.
“However rates for children 0-9 and 10-19 are at an all-time high and have more than quadrupled from a month ago,’’ LyonCallo said.
Average daily case rates
for ages 0-9 (207.6) have increased 387% and for ages 10-19 (613.7) are up 352% since Feb. 19.
And because the percent positivity rate is so high at 15.6% (up 348% from six weeks ago), the immediate future is not too bright. It is the highest it’s been in more than 11 months.
“Positivity is definitely an indicator that more testing is needed. We like to see positivity around 3% because it indicates you are testing enough to capture all cases,’’ Lyon-Callo said. “However it is also an indicator will are going to continue to see (COVID) transmission in the state.’’