ROUGH DRAFT
District maps for Congress, State House, State Senate must be adopted by Dec. 30; much more work needs to be done
Michiganders are getting their first look at what congressional districts may look like for the next 10 years after several draft maps revealed big changes for residents and major shifts in representation.
In 2018, Michigan voters approved creation of the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC), a citizen-led commission composed of four Republicans, four Democrats, and five independents, which is redrawing districts for state House and Senate, and congressional seats. Prior to the commission, districts were drawn every 10 years by the state Legislature using updated population and demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This led to gerrymandered districts, drawn to favor one political party over the other.
The commission has been using newlyreleased Census redistricting data, public comments received online and through statewide public hearings to guide their map making. Michiganders have even submitted their own draft maps for review.
The commission’s first draft map of the state’s congressional districts was released Sept. 16. Since then, other drafts have been released almost daily. All contain 13 districts instead of the current 14, due to population shifts between 2010 and 2020.
David Dulio, director of the Oakland University Center for Civic Engagement, said the loss of a congressional seat will likely mean incumbents will be running against other incumbents in 2022.
“It will be very interesting to see who ends up where,” he said. “I do think everyone in this process — the commissioners, the advocacy groups who have been active, and the public — are finding out how difficult a job this really is.”
Once maps are adopted and finalized, Dulio said that some will be pleased and others won’t.
“Because the district they have been in for years has changed dramatically, the commission did not take into account “communities of interest” the way (the public) wanted them to, or for other reasons,” he said.
By Oct. 1, the commission is scheduled to choose three draft maps — one each for the state House, state Senate and congressional districts — to post online for public review and comment.
On Nov. 5, the commission is scheduled to vote on three proposed maps before a 45-day public comment period that begins Nov. 14.
Finally, on Dec. 30, the commission will adopt maps, which will become final and signed into law.
Making these maps is a tall order with draft, proposed, and final maps required to meet a long list of standards.
Among the voter-approved criteria, redrawn maps must:
• Comply with the U.S. Voting Rights Act and be of equal population;
• Be geographically contiguous;
• Reflect the state’s diverse population and communities of interest;
• Not provide a disproportionate advantage to any political party;
• Not favor or disfavor an incumbent;
• Respect county/municipal borders;
• Be reasonably compact.
According to the draft maps released two weeks ago, there will be significant changes in congressional districts, especially in southeast Michigan, including Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne counties.
Candice Miller, Macomb County Public Works Commissioner and a former member Congress, said she respects voters’ decision to change the way Michigan’s congressional delegation is designed, but believes the current map shows no regard for county borders.
The draft maps show Oakland County included in five congressional districts, an increase from the current four, Wayne
The commission’s first draft map of the state’s congressional districts was released Sept. 16. Since then, other drafts have been released almost daily. All contain 13 districts instead of the current 14, due to population shifts between 2010 and 2020.
County in three to four districts, up from the current two, and Macomb County in three to four districts, up from the current two.
Even more compelling are communities that may share districts for the first time, with some crossing into more red or more blue areas, depending on how the final maps are drawn. That could create excitement for voters at the ballot box in 2022 while leaving some incumbents anxious about re-election.
The draft 6th District would include Rep. Haley Stevens’ hometown of Rochester Hills. Currently, Stevens represents the 11th District, which includes most of Oakland County and portions of western Wayne County. The draft 6th District would include portions of Oakland and Macomb representing residents of Rochester Hills and Troy, but also Sterling Heights and St. Clair Shores.
“This I believe would be one of the hottest races in America,” Miller said.
Among the biggest changes so far is the draft 10th District, which includes portions of Oakland, Macomb, and Genesee counties. Incumbents Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly), Dan Kildee (D-Flint), and Lisa McClain (R-Bruce Township) currently represent residents in those areas.
If the draft district stays the same through December, it’s very unlikely Democrats Slotkin and Kildee would run against each other in the 2022 primary. It’s expected that Slotkin would instead run in the new Lansing-based district, currently the 5th District. She currently represents the 8th District, which includes portions of Oakland, Livingston, and Ingham counties. By law, you don’t need to live in the district you’re running for, but you must be a resident of the state
Earlier this week, Slotkin spoke about changing district maps during an Ingham County Democratic Party meeting.
“From my perspective, if the district moves and is a Lansing-based district, and that is the district that is most natural for me to run, then I will move and live in the Lansing area and run in the Lansing district,” she said.
McClain, who represents Michigan’s 10th District including Macomb and five other counties, would see her district territory continue to stretch across six counties, but with Oakland and without Tuscola County. The draft maps show her representing portions of Macomb, Oakland, Genesee, Lapeer, and St. Clair counties, but minus Tuscola, Huron, and Sanilac counties.
Recently released draft maps show Oakland County with five new districts. There are seven incumbents currently living within those boundaries including Reps. Stevens, Slotkin, Kildee, Andy Levin (D-Bloomfield Township), Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield), McClain, and Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit).
The draft maps show Levin living in the same district as Lawrence, both Democrats. Levin currently represents the 9th District while Lawrence represents the 14th District.
“Michiganders deserve fair maps and fair representation,” said Lawrence. “As the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission continues their important work that will shape the next decade, I look forward to seeing the final congressional map in the coming months and it being better representative for our communities of color.”
Jody Job, chair of the Oakland County Democratic Party, said she has some concerns about draft maps for Oakland County.
“As it is currently drawn, the commission’s first draft does not protect Oakland County minority representation or take into consideration communities of shared needs and interests,” she said. “The commission should not be treating the state’s second largest county as an afterthought in redistricting.”
Job said she has great respect for the commission and their monumental task, but that they must address these issues and continue to listen to concerns of all Michiganders whose vote mandated that fair maps come out of this process.
Rep. Stevens, Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), Kildee and Levin did not comment for this story. Reps. Tlaib and John Moolenaar (R-Midland) did not respond to our requests for comment.
No matter what happens with the draft maps, McClain said she’s committed to representing all of her constituents.
“I’m aware the redistricting commission is meeting and redrawing district lines, however, redistricting does not impact my work day to day as your representative in Congress,” McLain said.
In Macomb County, draft maps show growth from two districts to three or four districts, depending on the map with incumbents Stevens, McClain, Tlaib and Moolenaar living within those proposed districts.
Miller has hopes that Macomb County would have its own district.
“Then we would have a cohesive voice to lobby for infrastructure dollars, water projects and the defense corridor,” she said. Wayne County would remain at three districts or increase to four districts, depending on the proposed maps you look at, with incumbent Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), Levin, Lawrence, and Tlaib living within those district borders.
Adrian Hemond, a Democratic political consultant and CEO of Grassroots Midwest, a bipartisan grassroots advocacy group, believes that the commission is working backwards by drawing the districts in southeast Michigan last, which are the hardest districts to draw.
Why are they so hard to draw?
One word: Population. Commissioners must decide how to split up large populations across districts while making sure they satisfy the other requirements.
“Other parts of the state — the west side and up north — are easier and we see that the counties in those areas are less split compared to Oakland (5 districts), Macomb (4 districts) and Wayne (4 districts),” said Dulio. “Again, I can’t stress enough that I’d be surprised if these were the final renderings.”
Right now, the commission’s draft congressional maps have only one majority minority district, the proposed Detroit-based 1st District. Two are needed to comply with the Voting Rights Act.
According to the draft map, Detroit-based 1st District has a 67.2% minority population, including 50.2% Black. No other proposed district has a majority minority population.
Matt Grossmann, a professor of political science at Michigan State University and director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, said the commission considered equal population and Voting Rights Act compliance as their first priority, but has not yet considered partisan fairness.
That doesn’t mean that was the commission’s intent.
“It’s just what happens when you make concentrated districts in the Detroit metro area (because Democrats are more concentrated than Republicans),” Grossman said. “They also did not take current incumbent locations into consideration; that is what their criteria (approved by voters) suggest.”
When it comes to maps drawn in Oakland and Macomb counties, Grossman said he would expect most of the lines to change and that he wouldn’t put too much stock in the current configurations.
Michigan’s legislative maps are now being drawn by the regular citizens, not politicians, which means the maps may be less partisan but more complicated to draw.
Tom Ivacko, executive director of The Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy at the University of Michigan, said that what makes the commission’s work more difficult is that they are drawing maps in a purple state during a time of hyperpartisan national politics.
“This all presents a very big ask, and in my opinion the commission has risen to the challenge admirably, so far,” he said. “While their draft maps are not yet finalized or analyzed comprehensively against the criteria, the commissioners are working transparently, valuing public input, making compromises, carefully considering trade-offs, and trying diligently to address the multiple criteria that our Constitution prescribes.”
Updated MICRC map drawings and meeting schedules can be found at https://michigan.mydistricting.com/legdistricting/michigan/comment_ links and https://www. michigan.gov/micrc/.