Legislative races set with only a few likely in play

for president, what’s your position on abortion, legalization of marijuana and all sorts of topics.”

Smith hopes to keep the seat in Republican control, but that may be tough against a Democratic candidate who has run in the district before, and with demographics shifting in the Democrat’s favor.

“We have a lot of older families in the neighborhood, but a lot of younger families moving in with kids,” said Michelle Meazell, a resident of the district who lives in the Mayfair Heights neighborhood. “We have a lot of gay and lesbian families in our neighborhood, and growing diversity that would make this more of a Democratic district.”

The district also features Libertarian candidate Elle Collins.

Presidential impact

A presidential race with two unfavorable candidates also could impact the race.

“I’ve knocked around 7,500 doors and I can probably count on both hands the number of voters who said ‘I like Clinton’ or ‘I like Trump,’” said Collin Walke, the Democratic candidate in District 87.

While Trump will almost certainly carry Oklahoma in the presidential race, urban districts like 87 might be a tougher climate for him, even among Republican voters. In District 87, Marco Rubio performed well ahead of Trump in the state primary, and for a Republican candidate like Smith there might not be much of an advantage in praising Trump while on the campaign trail.

“Republicans have very different reactions to Donald Trump’s candidacy than you have seen in past races and it seems to fall along certain geographic lines,” Holt said. “You see very competitive House seats in the inner northwest Oklahoma City area and you have to say that the Republican candidates would be smart to stay away from Donald Trump.”

On the flip side, competitive races in southeastern Oklahoma could be the reverse as Trump did well in that part of the state.

Sen. Joseph Silk is a Republican seeking re-election in Senate District 5, a southwest district he won two years ago, wrestling control away from Democrats. Silk’s 10 point victory in 2014 was sizable, but one of the smallest margins in recent years.

Senate District 7 is another seat Republicans recently flipped when Sen. Larry Boggs won by 8 points in 2012.

Assuming those two seats are in play for Democrats, there is a chance the minority party could pick up a seat or two in November. Democrats also are hopeful that House District 87 will be a gain.

But Republicans have their eyes set on adding to their own numbers, including House District 85, where Rep. Cyndi Munson won the seat for Democrats for the first time in a special election last year. Matt Jackson, last week’s Republican runoff winner, will face Munson in November.

Like neighboring District 87, Munson said she believes the presidential election could help her.

“Based on my conversations many Republicans are really wrestling with not voting or voting for somebody other than (Trump),” Munson said. “In my district all of the precincts voted for Marco Rubio, except for one. That tells you a little bit of their thoughts.”

Several state questions

The November ballot also will be crowded with several state questions that candidates will be asked to discuss with voters.

“I get a lot of questions about the penny sales tax for education,” Walke said about State Question 779, the one cent sales tax increase to fund teacher pay raises, public schools and state colleges. “I tell people I’m for it, but I explain that I think there should be a better way.”

Walke said there is a challenge in defending his stance to voters in his district, especially since a large number are on some form of government assistance and would be impacted by a sales tax hike.

“I tell people we have to find a way to offset that increase with some relief for working class and struggling families,” Walke said.

Like Walke, Smith is sometimes left defending his positions.

“People don’t like Trump, but I don’t trust Hillary (Clinton),” Smith said. “I tell people I will be voting for Trump. Maybe he should keep his mouth shut at times, but I think he’s a strong businessman who would be better for our country.”

Republican lead

Beyond a few races expected to be competitive, and possibly a few others that become surprisingly close, the Republican advantage of 110 to 39 in the state House and Senate isn’t likely to shift much.

“If there is not a real change in the Legislature following what was a really tough year there is no question people will try to read into that, but I don’t know that they should,” Holt said. “I still think even if people survive and the party in power is likely to continue to have power, I still think the Legislature has received some messages.

“But that probably won’t be because there is a shift in the fall.”