A look at the NBA MVP race
He sees things you don’t, and Billy Donovan admits his bias.
The Thunder coach has watched Russell Westbrook reviewing film with teammates. He’s seen the point guard take a young player aside to offer instruction, watched him maintain his cool even through the ups and downs of playing with a young team.
Couple that with the fact that Westbrook is averaging a triple-double, and Donovan’s bias makes his point guard the easy choice for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player. But Donovan knows only half of that equation is likely to play a part in the vote.
“He’s not evaluated on those things,” Donovan said. “He’s gonna be evaluated on what takes place between the lines. And I get it. So is everybody else.”
As the NBA hits the stretch run, Westbrook is one of four players – along with San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard, whose team visits the Thunder on Thursday; Houston’s James Harden;
and Cleveland’s LeBron James – who look to have a legitimate shot at the award.
How strong is Westbrook’s case? And what’s the argument for his competitors? A candidate-by-candidate breakdown:
Westbrook
The strongest argument is statistical. Westbrook remains on pace to become the first NBA player to average double-figure points, rebounds and assists in a season since Oscar Robertson in 1961-62. And he leads the league in scoring. Dig deeper and you’ll see that the Thunder allows 10.9 more points per 100 possessions than it scores when Westbrook is off the floor. No other top candidate’s team suffers so much when its star is on the bench.
Oklahoma City has lost four straight and is six games over .500. The Spurs, Rockets and Cavs are a combined 82 games over. And the statistics pessimist could argue that Westbrook’s numbers are inflated by using 41.5 percent of OKC’s possessions, a number that would break Kobe Bryant’s NBA record of 38.7 percent in 2005-06.
If the postseason started Thursday, the Thunder would be the No. 7 seed. Since 1983, every NBA MVP has been on a top-three playoff
seed.
Harden
If not for Westbrook, Harden’s numbers would be staggering. He leads the league in assists and is third in scoring. And the Rockets are exceeding expectations with 44 wins, already surpassing Las Vegas’ preseason over/under of 41.5.
Westbrook’s numbers are better. Leonard’s team is better. Though it’s produced a two-time MVP in Steve Nash, the Mike D’Antoni offense also has a reputation – fair or not – for inflating point guard stats.
If Harden finishes the season averaging 29 or more points and 11 or more assists, he’ll be only the third NBA player ever to do it, joining Robertson (three times) and Nate Archibald.
James
As former NBA star Allen Iverson said on SportsCenter this week, James “can win it every year.” He’s the most-gifted player in the league, and his team – despite significant injuries – is holding on to the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. And he gets points for efficiency.
As great as James has been carrying a huge load for the Cavaliers – he’s playing 37.6 minutes per game, second-most in the league – he could fall victim to his own greatness. Voters have come to expect his excellence, and Westbrook and Harden are taking statistical versatility to new heights.
James takes 18 shots a game and is shooting 53.8 percent. The only player in the league taking more shots and shooting at least 50 percent is New Orleans’ Anthony Davis.
Leonard
Leonard is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and he’s averaging career highs in points and assists. He averages more steals and blocks than any of the other contenders, and his team has the second-best record in the league.
Leonard’s numbers are terrific – except in comparison to the dazzling ones his MVP competitors are posting. And as good a defender as Leonard is, the Spurs allow fewer points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor (95.6) than when he’s on it (103.7).
If Leonard wins NBA Defensive Player of the Year this season, he’ll be the first player to win it three years in a row since Dwight Howard in 2009-11. If Leonard does it and maintains his 26 points-per-game scoring average, he’ll be the highest-scoring DPOY since Hakeem Olajuwon in 1993.