A plan of action
How did the Thunder get from losing an All-Star small forward to gaining one in a year’s time?
Punching through nba.com’s massive statistical base the other day, I came across a list that caught my eye.
At the top, a line of: Alex Abrines, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, Andre Roberson, Russell Westbrook.
Hmm. Wonder what that could be? So I studied it, and it appeared to be a list of the NBA’s 250 most-used lineups. Ranked in order of offensive production.
But wait. That’s not possible. No way could Andre Roberson be part of the NBA’s best offensive lineup.
Yet he was. The next four best offensive lineups were two Warrior fivesomes and two Rocket fivesomes. But there at the top, scoring 142.8 points per 48 minutes, was Westbrook, Adams, Abrines, Kanter and the most maligned shooter west of the Pecos.
So I looked deeper. The next four best offensive lineups for the Thunder also included Roberson. How can this be? How
can the offensively-challenged Roberson — who never met a foul shot he couldn’t air ball or a corner 3 he couldn’t bang off the side of the backboard — be part of efficient offenses? Like the Seinfeld line about people leaving a land of ponies for a land without ponies, it makes no sense.
But it’s true. Roberson’s shooting troubles, while true and discouraging, have not prohibited the Thunder from scoring at a high rate with him on the court. Sure, that’s because Roberson plays most of his minutes alongside Westbrook, and the Thunder offense works with Westbrook even if he’s playing with a Wax Museum all-star team.
The Thunder placed 17th out of 30 teams in offensive efficiency last season. Which means the Thunder fell off the Earth when Westbrook — and Roberson — sat. OKC was 10th in defense, thanks in no small part to Roberson.
That’s the dilemma the Thunder encounters as it seeks to remake a contender around Westbrook and Paul George. Roberson, who made second-team all-defense last season, might get a big enough offer that OKC can’t afford to match it. If some team really wants to pay Roberson north of $10 million a year, you just tip your cap and thank him for his service.
But Roberson is not replaceable. There’s no chance that OKC can find enough offense — either with imports or the likes of Abrines or Doug McDermott playing more — to make up for what Roberson brought on defense.
That’s not what anyone wants to hear. A guy who is a career 26 percent 3-point shooter is bad enough. But a guy who is a sub-50 percent foul shooter for his career is even worse. When the Rockets started fouling Roberson intentionally during the playoffs, we had reached the ridiculous stage.
If the Thunder doesn’t have a sports psychologist, it needs to get one. If the Thunder does have a sports psychologist, it needs a new one.
But that’s the point. I don’t know if anyone could ever turn Roberson into an even mediocre 3-point shooter. But I know someone could turn Roberson into an acceptable foul shooter.
And he was OKC’s second-best player in the 2017 playoffs. Ferocious defense on James Harden, plus 17 blocked shots, 11.6 points a game and 52.2 percent shooting, including 41.2 percent from 3-point range.
Plus, Roberson was excellent against Golden State in the 2016 West finals.
Roberson has proved he answers the playoff bell. Watch OKC’s most recent two playoff series, and you wonder why Roberson isn’t making $18 million a year.
Roberson complements Westbrook as an uptempo offensive partner and a defensive security blanket He and Westbrook are a good combination — Roberson’s speed makes him an uptempo partner for Westbrook, and Roberson’s defense allows Westbrook to catch his breath while staying on the court.
Add George to the mix, and the Thunder would have a wing duo that could put OKC’s defense at the top of the league.
Roberson can’t shoot a lick. But the Thunder’s offense still works with him on the court. And his defense is differencemaking. The Thunder will not be better next season if Roberson leaves. But he might cost more than the salary-capped Thunder can afford.