OPTICAL ILLUSION?: Is OU’s defense really as bad as it looks?
OLAWRENCE, KAN. — klahoma's defense stinks. Everyone says so. Fans. Enemies. Pundits. Even members of the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Oh, they may not use the word "stinks," but few folks think the Sooner defense smells all that lovely.
But on a day the Sooner defense will look plenty good against hapless Kansas — the Jayhawks mustered all of 21 yards of offense in a game earlier this season — the expected outcome got me thinking about another sense. Not smell but sight.
Optics, to be more precise.
Is OU's defense really as bad as it looks?
I've been critical of the Sooner defense this season, and the stats more than back up anyone who wants to be. OU ranks 85th nationally in total defense at 414.2 yards per game and 70th in scoring defense at 27.4 points.
But I started thinking about this question of optics because of what OU did to Ohio State, a team that is solidly in the playoff conversation despite two blowout losses. As Big 12 teams go up and down the field on the Sooner defense, I am reminded that the Buckeye offense did no such thing.
It scored 16 points, amassed only 350 yards of total offense and managed just 183 passing yards on a 19-of-35 day.
That game was arguably J.T. Barrett's worst performance of the season. But it wasn't a total outlier. The Ohio State quarterback has had more games this season where he's completed no more than two-thirds of his passes (six) than games where he's been over that mark (four). And he's thrown for 275 yards or less way more times (seven) than he's thrown for over 300 yards (three).
Let's be honest, OU's woes come down to pass defense. The Sooners do decently against the run, but against the pass? Bleck.
So, let's take a deeper dive on pass defense around the country. Let's use the teams currently ranked in the top 10 by the selection committee. It's a group representing four of the Power 5 conferences and Notre Dame. A fairly significant cross-section of the sport.
Of those teams, there are two clusters when you look at their opponents' pass-completion percentage.
On the low side, there is Wisconsin (50.3), Miami (51.6) and Clemson (52.6). All within one
point of each other.
On the high side, bunched within four-ish points of each other, are Alabama (54.2), Auburn (54.8), Notre Dame (56.5), Georgia (56.6), Ohio State (56.8), Penn State (57.3) and OU (58.4). These teams are statistically very similar in how often their opponents are completing passes. And yet, if you look at the total pass yardage allowed, the Sooners stand out like a sore thumb.
OU: 2,634. Average for the rest of the group: 1,907.5.
And here's the extremely interesting thing — that OU number is not high because teams in the Big 12 throw the ball more. Yes, nine of the Big 12 teams average at least 30 pass attempts a game. (TCU's at 29.9, so we'll round up the Frogs.) But the top 10 teams in the playoff rankings have all faced an average of 30 pass attempts or more a game. ACC. SEC. Big Ten. Everyone is facing a similar number of passes.
But all passes are not created equal.
In the Big 12, teams don't just throw it. They throw deep. They stretch the field. Oklahoma State, for example, has 59 passes of 20 yards or more this season.
The other OSU that OU faced this season has 39 such plays.
In the Big Ten and frankly every other league, you're way more likely to see teams throwing screens and swings than posts and bombs. The Big 12 offenses are not only built to do such things but also want to do them regularly.
Considering the type of passing attacks that the OU defense faces regularly in Big 12 play, the Sooners are almost bound to give up more passing yards. But if completion percentages count for anything — and I don't know why they wouldn't — it sure seems like a bunch of these other teams in playoff contention would be in the same boat as the Sooners if they played in the Big 12 and faced more long balls instead of short stuff. Even if their completion percentage stayed the same, their total yardage allowed would most certainly go up.
They wouldn't smell so sweet either.
Listen, none of this changes the fact that OU's pass defense has been bad at times and worse than that at others. It has to be better. But on a day when everyone will explain away how good the OU defense looks because of the way its opponent plays, you have to wonder why the same standard doesn't hold with some of these other teams in the playoff hunt.