Coaching change?
The solution to the Thunder’s woes is not a mid-season firing, columnist Berry Tramel says.
Despite this maddening Thunder season, Billy Donovan is not a marked man. Markedup man? Sure.
After two full seasons in which Donovan displayed his NBA coaching acumen despite 27 straight years on a college campus, Donovan is taking his hits. A Thunder roster that we all thought could at least stand up to Golden State and could match the rest of the best of the West, has instead staggered to a 23-20 record.
The problems are many. Offense one week, defense the next. The Thunder, so good in close games last season, is mediocre in close games this season. The Thunder’s inconsistency shows in its record against the NBA’s best and worst teams. OKC is .500 (2-2) against Atlanta, Orlando, Sacramento and Memphis, and OKC is .500 (5-5) against Golden State, Houston, Boston, San Antonio and Minnesota.
It’s enough to think about a shake-up, and while that usually means players, not in this case. Blockbuster deals for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony have made this Thunder roster somewhat static. Trade chips are few. Options are limited.
That leaves a coaching change. Which is not the Thunder way. Shouldn’t be most teams’ way.
Midseason coaching changes rarely work, though there are plenty of examples of a new coach invigorating a struggling team.
But either way, a coaching change makes no financial sense at a time when the Thunder is in perilous money times. OKC has committed $134 million in salaries this season, with soaring luxury tax bills. Donovan makes $6 million a year. Can the Thunder afford to pay Donovan not to coach?
Also, despite all kinds of changes to the Thunder’s culture over the last two years, a coaching change would be the ultimate sign that Sam Presti has gone all quick-trigger.
Swapping coaches at the first sign of real trouble? That’s what the Suns and Nets do. Not the Thunder.
Presti justifiably tried to catch thunder in a bottle with the George and Carmelo trades. But shifting course with a new coach in January is playing the lottery. Doing something for something sake.
Besides, Presti knows Donovan can do the job. Presti knows Donovan is telling his troops the right things. Donovan’s first two full seasons in the NBA proved he
knew what he was doing, despite having spent the previous 27 years on a college campus.
In 2015-16, Donovan implemented a new system with patience and aplomb. The Thunder was a shaky 12-8 after 20 games but finished with 55 wins and staged a historic playoff push. In NBA history, only twice had a team eliminated an opponent with at least 67 regular-season wins. Then the Thunder dang near did it twice in a fortnight.
In 2016-17, in the debris of the Kevin Durant defection, Donovan coached the Thunder to a litany of close wins. OKC willed its way to a 47-35 record, 10thbest
in the NBA, even though the all-telling point differential said the Thunder was the league’s 12th-best team.
Those are hallmarks of quality NBA coaching. But it’s a good thing Donovan has those seasons on his resume’, considering this season has been a mess.
Midseason coaching changes rarely work. But when they work, they work magnificently.
I found 152 in-season coaching changes that didn’t come in the first 10 or last 10 games of the season. Only 38 of those 152 changes led to a playoff berth, and only 12 of those 38 led to a playoff series victory.
However, four times in
NBA history a team won the championship after a coaching change. The Cavaliers two years ago did it with Tyronn Lue replacing David Blatt. Three others involved Pat Riley — Paul Westhead replaced Jack McKinney 14 games into the 197980 Laker season, because McKinney suffered a serious bicycle wreck; two years later, the Lakers fired Westhead after a 7-4 and replaced him with Riley, who had left the broadcast crew to join Westhead’s staff after McKinney’s injury; and in 2005-06, Riley replaced Stan Van Gundy after Miami started 11-10 and led the Heat to the title.
So if a midseason
coaching change means Pat Riley comes aboard, sign me up. Otherwise, who’s coming in? Larry Brown? George Karl?
On the coachingchange list, I looked for teams with a similar winning percentage to the Thunder’s current .535. I found about 20. Some worked. Some didn’t.
The 2003-04 Nets were 22-20 when Byron Scott was fired; Lawrence Frank took over, the Nets went 25-15 the rest of the way and won a playoff series. The 200405 Lakers were 24-19 when they parted ways with Rudy Tomjanovich; LA went 10-29 thereafter under Frank Hamblen.
The 1991-92 Clippers were 21-24 under Mike
Schuler; Larry Brown took over, went 23-13 and coached the Clippers to the playoffs. The 2006-07 Timberwolves were 20-20 when they fired Dwayne Casey; Minnesota went 12-30 under Randy Wittman.
So you never know. But it’s usually a desperate act. Desperation isn’t the Thunder’s way. OKC is going to have to rally the old-fashioned way. Play its way to success.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at (405) 760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM98.1. You can also view his personality page at newsok. com/berrytramel.