Bridenstine’s NASA nomination is in jeopardy
An unlikely array of circumstances has aligned to dim U.S. Rep. Jim Bridenstine’s odds of becoming NASA administrator — arithmetic in the Senate, an election in Alabama, the failing health of two octogenarians — leaving the likelihood of confirmation only marginally better than a coin flip.
“Fifty-one to 49,” said John Logsdon, founder of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University. “That’s about the odds. They’re slightly above even.”
In the four months since he was nominated by President Donald Trump for the job he had aptly positioned himself to ascend to, Bridenstine has heard his own words recited back to him as reasons why roughly half the Senate opposes his nomination.
There was his 2013 claim that “global temperatures stopped rising 10 years ago,” a claim he has since distanced himself from. There was his claim that samesex couples are sexually immoral. There were his media appearances with ultraconservative commentators.
“Congressman Bridenstine’s nomination is no less controversial today than it was when he was first tabbed by the White House to lead NASA last year,” said Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat who has led the opposition to Bridenstine. “His nomination remains in serious jeopardy because many in the Senate agree that NASA needs to have a space professional at its helm and not a divisive politician.”
The Senate’s 49 Democrats and independents are expected to remain united in their opposition, according to Senate sources and space policy experts. At least 50 of the 51 Republicans in the Senate will need to back Bridenstine if his nomination is to succeed. A 50-50 tie would be resolved by Vice President Mike Pence in Bridenstine’s favor.
“We can only lose one Republican and we know that (Sen. Marco) Rubio has very serious concerns,” said a Republican Senate staffer.
Rubio and McCain
Democrats disagree with Bridenstine’s background as a partisan politician, believing it unbecoming of a NASA
administrator. That past could also hurt his chances with Rubio and at least one other Republican, though for a slightly different reason.
During the 2016 presidential campaign, Bridenstine backed Ted Cruz over Rubio and suggested in television ads that Rubio, a Florida Republican, would make a weak commander-inchief. He also supported Kelli Ward, a conservative challenger to Sen. John McCain in Arizona. Now, Bridenstine’s nomination rests in the hands of McCain and Rubio.
Rubio’s office did not respond to a request for comment Friday. In November, the senator said, “I remain very concerned about the politicization of NASA, not even because (Bridenstine) would do it on purpose but just given some of the resistance he’s already engendered.”
Marcia Smith, a longtime congressional researcher and space policy expert, wrote last week for SpacePolicyOnline that at least one and as many as three Republicans have reservations about Bridenstine’s nomination. Two Republicans voting in opposition would be enough to kill the nomination.
One open question is whether Nelson, who has flown in space and is a respected voice on space policy, can lure Republican senators into his opposition camp.
“It’s possible,” said Logsdon, the Space Police Institute founder. “Nelson’s staff person said way back in December that Nelson had some Republican votes in his pocket if he needed them.”
Another open question is whether McCain and Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., will be healthy enough to vote. Both have missed considerable time with illnesses.
By renominating Bridenstine this month after his nomination was returned to the president in December, the White House has indicated its support and belief that he can be confirmed. No Trump nominee has yet been rejected by a vote of the Republican-controlled Senate.
“I don’t know for sure but it’s likely this nomination is being managed by the space-dedicated
staff within the White House, which works for Vice President Pence on the National Space Council. They’re smart people and certainly can count,” Logsdon said. “So, one would think they would not have recommended re-submission if they thought they were going to lose.”
Unprecedented
For all the unknowns, a few details are clear. First, the Senate Commerce Committee will take up Bridenstine’s nomination Thursday. Second, his nomination won’t come up for a full Senate vote unless Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., believes it will be successful. Third, the opposition to Bridenstine is unprecedented in NASA’s history.
“There’s never been a predominantly partisan questioning of a nominee for the NASA job and, to the best of my memory, very few have been controversial,” said Logsdon, the author of several books on NASA history.
Bridenstine would be the first NASA administrator to arrive there from an elected position and one of few with political experience. The congressman has said he will model himself after James Webb, the second NASA administrator and its most celebrated. Webb, a Democrat and a partisan, had worked in the Truman administration.
Opposition to Bridenstine is a symptom of both Washington’s divisive political environment and the congressman’s own history of outspoken, uncompromising politicking while a member of the rabblerousing House Freedom Caucus, experts say.
“It’s clearly a bit of each,” Logsdon said. “Jim Bridenstine, in his three terms in the House, has taken some very partisan positions. Those positions produce partisan reactions.”
One hundred and 37 days after Trump first nominated Bridenstine, it’s still unknown whether he will lead the world’s premier space agency or retire from Congress jobless this time next year, Logsdon said.
“The bottom line is, anyone who says they know what’s going to happen is being very speculative.”