Politics’ third rail remains untouched by both parties

THE untouchable third rail of politics was powered almost exclusively by Democrats. Today, Republicans seem just as likely to be the engineers of entitlement reform resistance.

Social Security and Medicare are headed for a train wreck. We all know this, but President Trump and many members of Congress are whistling down the tracks, perhaps hoping to hop a freight that will speed them past this unsustainable future.

Arguments that minimize the looming crisis are less informed opinion than they are political spin. Just which political party is spinning the hardest these days is tricky to determine.

Concerns about entitlements, writes Manhattan Institute senior fellow Brian Riedl, “are dismissed as the dying voice of the out-of-touch Washington establishment. For conservative leaders, the surest path to credibility with the grassroots lies in focusing on working-class ‘real America’ concerns such as globalism and income inequality. And nothing could be more tone-deaf than depriving struggling families of their earned Social Security and Medicare benefits …”

Whereas George W. Bush pledged his political capital to reform entitlements during his second term, the next Republican to work in the Oval Office pledged not to touch the third rail. Trump won the support of 88 percent of Republicans, the political base that once worried about budget deficits and entitlement insolvency.

Today they not only support tax policy that could increase the deficit but also pretend that entitlement reform is for another time. Kicking this can has worked for Democrats, after all, so why shouldn’t they do the same now?

The answer is simply this, as Riedl reminds us: Between 2008 and 2030, 74 million baby boomers will retire into Social Security and Medicare. The influx is occurring at the rate of 10,000 Americans per day. The cost of their benefits will be financed by current taxpayers. This worked in 1960, Riedl writes in a posting for National Review Online, when five workers supported each retiree. The ratio has since fallen below 3-to-1 today, on its way to 2-to-1. “So by the time my daughters (ages 5 and 2) are adults, each married couple will be responsible for the Social Security and health care of their very own retiree.”

The response to these numbers from most Democrats and an increasing number of Republicans is a big “Whatever!”

Bush got nowhere with entitlement reform in 2005. He got little support from Democrats. And that was before a crisis called Katrina came calling. After the hurricane, entitlement reform was blown away indefinitely. The next president and his party added a new entitlement called Obamacare. The deficit cash register kept getting punched. Entitlement reform remains on a siding laden with rust from lack of movement.

The conductors of public policy shrug off the numbers and suggest that if we really must sorta, kinda do something, we must tax the rich. Won’t work. Not enough money. Trump doesn’t necessarily like deficits but he certainly doesn’t want higher taxes. Instead, his approach seems to be to cut spending on most everything but entitlements. That won’t work either. Not enough to cut.

“Ultimately,” Riedl concludes, “the math always wins.”

What loses? The well-being of our grandchildren.