Cowgirls, Sooners await their fate
Oklahoma State women’s basketball coach Jim Littell bristled just hearing the word.
Bubble.
The Cowgirls’ case for an NCAA Tournament berth seems to be strong, and Littell doesn’t see them as a bubble team entering Monday’s bracket announcement at 6 p.m. on ESPN.
“We finished third in a good league, and the team we tied with, we swept,” Littell said, referring to Oklahoma, which also went 11-7 in Big 12 play.
Both the Cowgirls (2010) and Sooners (16-14) find themselves in precarious situations, though Oklahoma State appears to have a stronger case for an at-large berth than its instate rival.
Here’s a look at the positives and negatives weighing against each team:
Why Oklahoma State will get in
With 20 wins overall and 11 in the Big 12, OSU would be a lock to get in most years.
However, beyond the top two teams in the conference, Baylor and Texas, the Big 12 isn’t getting much national respect. It ranks fourth in conference RPI.
But putting a third team in the field from the conference doesn’t seem outlandish.
If a third team is to get in, OSU’s case against its Big 12 counterparts is strong, with a 2-0 record against OU and TCU, and a 2-1 mark against West Virginia, with the loss coming last week in the Big 12 Tournament.
The Cowgirls have a three-point loss at Mississippi State, plus a loss to Tennessee and a home win over UCLA in the nonconference season.
OSU ranks No. 23 in the Sagarin rating, third among Big 12 teams, with West Virginia one spot back and OU three spots behind. ESPN’s Sunday bracketology projections had the Cowgirls as a No. 9 seed, comfortably in the field.
Why Oklahoma State will be left out
The RPI rating is the biggest factor working against the Cowgirls.
OSU’s RPI is 59, which is also where its schedule ranks.
Road losses at Kansas and Kansas State, plus a home loss to Iowa State are the only real blemishes on an otherwise solid season. Six of OSU’s 10 losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 12.
The Cowgirls are also trending downward, with losses in four of their last six games.
College Sports Madness has OSU projected as a No. 10 seed, but also counts the Cowgirls among the last eight teams getting into the field with at-large berths.
So maybe that’s where some of the bubble talk is coming from.
“I don’t control those things,” Littell said. “We will wait and see what happens on Monday, but I think if you look at the big picture, we’ve had an outstanding year.”
Why Oklahoma will get in
With an impromptu statement at the end of her Big 12 Championship news conference, Baylor coach Kim Mulkey made a strong case to include Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament.
“If strength of schedule is important to the committee, you can’t leave Sherri Coale out,” Mulkey said. “Doesn’t she have one of the toughest strength of schedules in the country?
“Now you gotta win some of those games, but if we’re going to push coaches and programs to play these strength of schedules, don’t punish them if they don’t win those games.”
Coale’s regular-season schedule was the secondtoughest in the NCAA. The Sooners, ranked No. 34 in the RPI, played six AP top10 team during the regular season with four of those games coming on the road. OU also has eight top-100 RPI wins.
Four of Oklahoma’s nonconference losses were to teams that eventually won their conferences — Connecticut, Oregon, DePaul and Arkansas-Little Rock — and South Dakota State finished second in its conference.
Though the Sooners lost seven regular-season conference games, none of those losses was a truly bad loss. OU lost to Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State twice and at TCU when the Horned Frogs were ranked No. 24. Both losses to the Cowgirls also occurred when OSU was ranked.
The Sooners finished tied for third in the conference, winning 11 Big 12 games. Only one Big 12 team, Texas Tech’s 1997 squad, has been left out of the NCAA Tournament with 11 conference wins.
Why Oklahoma will be left out
For as much good as Oklahoma’s non-conference scheduling is doing for the Sooners’ NCAA chances, the team’s performance through that stretch is also hurting it.
OU went 5-6 in the nonconference play. While the losses to Connecticut and Oregon are quality losses — if such a thing exists — the loss to Florida (11-19) really hurts.
The Gators finished No. 176 in RPI and finished 11th in the SEC.
In conference play, OU lost seven games, including five in the first month of the Big 12 season.
While OU finished the regular season on a fourgame win streak, the 90-83 loss to TCU in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament was a big hit to the Sooners’ resume.
Not only do the Horned Frogs have an RPI of 69, but OU was thoroughly outplayed in the loss. For a bubble team, it wasn’t a positive last impression.