Oklahoma City congressional district shifting political allegiance
When Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District — a three-county swath that includes Oklahoma City — last elected a Democrat, the year was 1974, the Republican president had just resigned and Democrats were gaining large majorities in both chambers of Congress.
Forty-four years later, the 5th District is trending Democratic again and Republicans nationwide are bracing for a potential wave election. Crystal Ball, a highly-regarded handicapper of political races, recently moved the 5th District from its “safe Republican” category to “likely Republican.” Whether a blue wave can reach Oklahoma is unclear but even the possibility has energized Democrats in the state’s largest city.
“The takeaway here is that this is not a safe seat, and should be getting a lot more attention,” said Noah Rudnick, a political analyst whose statistical model was the basis for Crystal Ball’s rating change.
Last week, Democrat Conner Lamb won a district in Pennsylvania that had voted overwhelmingly for President Donald Trump just 17 months before, the latest scare for Republicans in the 2018 election cycle. Trump won Oklahoma’s 5th District by a smaller margin than he won Lamb’s district in Pennsylvania.
“I think anybody who’s going to be on the ballot should be nervous,” said Pat McFerron, a Republican pollster and strategist in Oklahoma City. “Do I think (Rep. Steve) Russell should be especially nervous? No. I think he should be on his toes and on his game, but I don’t know if ‘nervous’ is where I would classify it.”
'The real fight'
The 5th District encompasses all of Seminole and Pottawatomie counties, along with nearly all of Oklahoma County. Rudnick's calculations show about 86 or 87 percent of votes will come from Oklahoma County, about 9 percent from Pottawatomie County and the remaining few percent from Seminole County.
Russell garnered 60 percent of votes in 2014 and 57 percent in 2016, easily surpassing Democrat Al McAffrey in two elections that were generally good for Republicans nationwide. Trump, however, has been less popular in the district, winning just 53 percent of votes in 2016, compared to 59 percent by prior Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Support for Trump will be important this November, Rudnick said, because evangelical voters have kept the 5th District Republican at a time when demographics — such as its high number of minority voters — have threatened to turn it into a Democratic district. Because evangelical voters cast ballots at a high rate, their support could prove crucial for Russell, an evangelical Southern Baptist.
“That base plays a huge part, especially because they affect turnout far more than minority voters in a typical election year,” Rudnick said. “The real fight could be, how comfortable are these voters with Trump? How comfortable are they with the GOP as a whole?”
Russell is a lawmaker more conservative than his largely urban and suburban district would indicate but one who has also made clear when he disagrees with Trump’s bellicose behavior. As McFerron phrases it, “He’s not your typical, corporate type of Republican.”
“I think he is probably more immune from partisan labeling than the average congressman, not just in Oklahoma but in other places,” the Republican strategist said. “I think most people would say he’s a military guy before they’d say he’s a Republican.”
The challengers
Four Democrats have announced they are running against Russell: Elysabeth Britt, Tom Guild, Kendra Horn and Ed Porter. Formal candidate filing is next month. The Democratic primary will be June 26.
Democrats in Oklahoma City have experienced a surge in optimism following special elections in Oklahoma that sent their candidates to the Legislature from traditionally Republican districts, along with Democratic wins elsewhere in the country, like Lamb’s win in Pennsylvania and Sen. Doug Jones’s win in Alabama.
However, "special elections are unique and it is dangerous to use them as harbingers,” warns Rebekah Herrick, an Oklahoma State University professor of political science. “They are isolated, there is usually more attention paid to them and some of the recent ones have had weak Republican candidates.
“Unlike the special elections, there is an incumbent running and even in bad years for incumbents, I would put my money on the incumbent, not the challenger,” Herrick said of the 5th District.
Lamb and Jones benefited from being moderate Democrats, making them less objectionable to independents and moderate Republicans. Whether Democrats in Oklahoma City will choose a moderate remains to be seen.
“I think the Democratic electorate here has moved further and further left,” McFerron said. “Can the Democrats here nominate someone that can make it competitive? Does anyone think a pro-life Democrat can win the nomination here? I don’t.”
Because the 5th District’s demographics are beginning to favor Democrats, support from large numbers of Republicans may not be necessary if Democrats are able to attract independents and dramatically increase turnout within their own ranks. Both goals will require money and a message that reaches voters, the experts say.
Horn has proved to be the top fundraiser among Democrats to date, receiving about $165,000 last year. Guild raised $40,594 and Porter raised $15,380. Britt, who only recently joined the race, has not yet filed a report with the Federal Election Commission. Fundraising totals for the first three months of 2018 will be available in midApril.
In a narrow congressional race, Oklahoma's gubernatorial election could impact the outcome, according to Rudnick. If Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett is the Republican candidate, he will presumably do well in Oklahoma City, drawing more Republicans to the polls, Rudnick said. If a Democratic gubernatorial candidate garners strong support, they could increase turnout for the 5th District Democrat.
Another factor will be third-party candidates. Libertarian Zachary Knight grabbed 17,113 votes in 2016, about 6 percent of the total. Ifan independent or Libertarian are not on the ballot this year, Democrats stand to benefit, Rudnick said.