For those left, Sweet relief
Sweet Sixteen teams were able to sidestep bracket chaos, now must buckle down to keep San Antonio hopes alive
West Region Staples Center, Los Angeles Thursday:
Michigan vs. Texas A&M (7:37 p.m. ET, TBS) and Gonzaga vs. Florida State (approx. 10:07 p.m. ET, TBS) No. 3 MICHIGAN (30-7) Why they can advance: Winners of 11 in a row, the Wolverines are playing brilliantly at both ends of the floor. Michigan spaces the floor about as well as anyone in the country, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman’s excellent work down the stretch has made a well-coached team even more difficult to contain. What could stop them: For all of their tactical and fundamental excellence (including a No. 4 ranking in turnover percentage, per KenPom.com), the Wolverines are a meager 65.8 percent at the foul line. That could bite them in a tight game. No. 4 GONZAGA (32-4) Why they can advance: Few obvious weaknesses.
The Zags don’t force a lot of turnovers, and they’re average at both defending the 3-point line and making their own free throws. But that’s largely quibbling. Killian Tillie, Johnathan Williams and their teammates are a really solid bunch.
What could stop them: A well-rounded team. This probably isn’t as tested a Gonzaga team as others, and Mark Few’s crew faced only one of the other Sweet 16 teams in the regular season (an 88-72 loss to Villanova). The Zags aren’t as good as last year, but the bracket certainly broke in their favor.
No. 7 TEXAS A&M (22-12) Why they can advance: Defense. Texas A&M’s size — with Tyler Davis and especially Robert Williams protecting the rim — rightfully gets a lot of attention, but the Aggies create headaches with their perimeter defense as well.
What could stop them: Poor shooting. Texas A&M ranks 262nd nationally in 3-point percentage and 320th in foul shooting. If an opponent can keep them from scoring buckets in the paint — a big if — the Aggies offense is likely to struggle. They’re just not built to rely on anything but high-percentage shots. No. 9 FLORIDA STATE (22-11)
Why they can advance: Depth and athleticism.
Those are the two calling cards of Leonard Hamilton’s program over the last few years. While Terance Mann and Braian Angola are the established veterans, the Seminoles usually go at least 11 deep and freshman Mfiondu Kabengele has emerged of late as an inside contributor. What could stop them: Defense. Florida State could barely stop anyone down the stretch of the regular season, and that was doubly true away from Tallahassee. The Seminoles are especially weak defending the perimeter, something Gonzaga could easily exploit.
South Region
Philips Arena, Atlanta
Thursday: Nevada vs. Loyola-Chicago (7:07 p.m. ET, CBS) and Kentucky vs. Kansas State (approx. 9:37 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 5 KENTUCKY (26-10) Why they can advance: Talent and size. Raw ability is never in question with a John Calipari team, and freshmen Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Knox are the key pieces here. But there’s also a healthy number of big, rangy players who can create problems on defense.
What could stop them: A poor shooting night. Kentucky makes up for its unremarkable shooting with an impressive ability to crash the offensive glass. But one of the themes of this tournament is lousy shooting nights dooming superior teams (Virginia and Michigan State among them), and if the Wildcats lose this week, there’s a good chance spotty shooting will be the culprit. No. 7 NEVADA (29-7) Why they can advance: Stellar offense. Former
NBA coach Eric Musselman has built a team that makes a bunch of threes and leads the country in turnover percentage, according to KenPom.com. That’s a formula for winning games, as Jordan Caroline and the Martin twins (Caleb and Cody) have shown all season. What could stop them: Foul trouble. The Wolf Pack basically is running a six-man rotation out there and is vulnerable to a tightly officiated contest. There are also times Nevada’s defense fades.
No. 9 KANSAS STATE (24-11)
Why they can advance: A well-forged identity.
K-State knows exactly what it is — a capable defensive team that forces a bunch of turnovers but isn’t especially well-suited to attack the glass. That’s an asset for Barry Brown and his teammates.
What could stop them: Two things stand out. First, it will be tough to survive another game without Dean Wade, though the forward expects to return from a foot injury. But even if he does, that rebounding deficiency is the sort of things Kentucky is well-suited to exploit. No. 11 LOYOLA-CHICAGO (30-5)
Why they can advance: Superior ball movement and shooting. It’s not hard to see the influence of the late Rick Majerus at work. Coach Porter Moser worked for Majerus at Saint Louis, and his team (led by Clayton Custer, Donte Ingram and Marques Townes) consistently takes its time to find the best available shot.
What could stop them: A team that plays them a little better than Miami or Tennessee did. The Ramblers won their first two tournament games by a combined three points. As good as they’ve been at both ends of the floor, they’ve won just one of their last six games by double figures.