Faith in politicians can often wind up misplaced

AS Politico recently reported, Republican chances of retaining power in Washington may depend upon former Democrats now running as Republicans. This is raising questions of party loyalty for some voters. But if history is any indicator, past political preferences are no predictors of future results.

Four serious Republican candidates in battleground U.S. Senate races “actually voted in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary,” Politico reported. One of those is Cindy Hyde-Smith, who has been appointed by Mississippi’s governor to fill the vacancy left by the midterm resignation of Sen. Thad Cochran, a Republican.

Hyde-Smith was elected state agriculture commissioner as a Republican, but was a registered Democrat until 2010 and previously served in the state Senate as a member of the Democratic caucus.

Other party switchers who could become GOP Senate candidates include Rep. Evan Jenkins in West Virginia, businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson in Wisconsin and former state legislator Mike Braun in Indiana.

That all four candidates were still Democrats and voting in primaries that pitted Hillary Clinton against Barack Obama has led some to question whether they are conservatives or mere opportunists who would vote with Democrats if elected.

Yet there are examples of party switchers who became their new party’s most dependable advocates. Ronald Reagan, in particular, comes to mind. But there have been others, such as former Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, who was first elected as a Democratic member of Congress but became a free-market leader in the GOP. And two members of the Republican caucus in the Senate today got their start as elected Democrats.

There’s a reason it’s often noted there are no greater advocates than converts. This is true in politics and religion. And there are instances where longstanding party ties and established records have proven less than helpful in predicting how someone will behave once in office.

When Brad Henry ran for governor in 2002 as a Democratic state senator, he had one of the most liberal voting records in the Legislature according to some measurements. But when Henry ran for reelection in 2006, he did so on a record that included what may be the most significant tax cuts in Oklahoma history, signing a “stand your ground” progun law, and support of anti-abortion measures.

When Mary Fallin ran for governor in 2010, she was a long-tenured member of the Republican Party who had generally toed the conservative line. When she finishes her term this year, Fallin may leave having signed into law more tax increases than any governor in at least a generation.

Similarly, Oklahoma’s Legislature is dominated by Republicans, but one might not know that from their fiscal record. Senate President Pro Tem Mike Schulz, R-Altus, has said, “I don’t think one of us ran on, ‘I want to raise your taxes.’ But we’re here and we understand the problem in recurring revenue and we’re here to solve the problem.” That’s a way of conceding many Republican legislators have said one thing on the campaign trail and done another in office.

Whether a candidate is a party switcher or longtime party supporter, what politicians promise and how they vote are often two different things, and there’s no good way to predict who will be consistent and who won’t.