Playoff scenarios
With three games left, the Thunder needs two wins to guarantee a playoff spot.
Russell Westbrook, as he is wont to do, disagreed with the premise of the question.
The Thunder had lost at home to the Warriors on Tuesday, had fallen to sixth place in the Western Conference standings, and when Westbrook was asked if he remained confident that he and Paul George and Carmelo Anthony would “figure it out” by playoff time, he took issue.
“We’ve figured it out,” Westbrook said. “We’re good.”
It hasn’t always looked that way.
With three games to play, the Thunder is 45-34, still fighting to clinch a playoff spot and solidify a seed. And though the possibility remains remote that Oklahoma City will miss the playoffs, it exists.
In case you haven’t figured out the intricacies of the standings, we’re here to help. A look at some of the key questions you should be asking as the Thunder prepares for its final three games, beginning Friday at Houston.
How can the Thunder guarantee a playoff berth?
Oklahoma City still controls its destiny for
securing a bid. If it wins at least two of its final three games to reach 47 wins this season, its postseason berth is assured.
That’s because Minnesota has 44 wins and Denver has 43, and the Timberwolves and Nuggets play each other twice in the season’s final week. If one of those teams gets to 47 wins, the other can’t.
So 47 is a magic number. The Thunder can get in with fewer wins, but it would require some help.
What’s the status of the Thunder’s tiebreakers?
With records so closely bunched, this could come into play.
The Thunder won three of four regular season games against Utah and
would get the better seed if the two teams finished the season tied. OKC swept three games from the Clippers, but L.A. would need some help for that to matter.
The Blazers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Nuggets all own tiebreakers against Oklahoma City based on winning the regular-season series.
The Spurs and Thunder split the regular-season series, so if they finish tied in the standings, the tiebreaker would come down to conference record.
San Antonio had a threegame lead in that record entering a late Wednesday game against the Lakers, leaving open the possibility of the Thunder taking that tiebreaker in the unlikely event of winning out while the Spurs lost out.
How many positions can the Thunder still land?
OKC has been eliminated from contention for the top three spots. Houston and Golden State have locked up the 1 and 2 seeds, respectively, and the Thunder can’t tie for third with a team against which it owns a tiebreaker.
The No. 4 spot remains in play, but Oklahoma City needs some help from the Spurs and Jazz, even if it wins out. But if the Thunder ties with both San Antonio and Utah at fourth, it would win the tiebreaker based on having the best combined record against the other two teams in the tie.
The Thunder controls its destiny only for the No. 8 seed. It could still finish fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh, but it needs losses from other competitors to get there.
What are the chances the Thunder gets to 47 wins?
Decent, but it’s not a given.
As of Wednesday, statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight.com gave OKC only a 16 percent chance of winning Saturday’s game at Houston. But it’s unclear how the Rockets will approach that game with regard to resting players.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Thunder a 49 percent chance of winning at Miami next Monday, a 90 percent chance of winning its season finale at home against Memphis and a 93 percent chance of getting into the playoffs, either on its own or with help.
Win at least two of those games, and all OKC has to worry about is who it’s playing in the first round. Lose at least two, and the Thunder could be sweating heading into the season’s final days.