GROWING PAINS
Drought, crop choices impact state’s expected wheat harvest
Estimates released Tuesday predict Oklahoma's farmers will harvest about 36 percent less wheat this year than they did a year ago.
Officials attribute part of that to another reduction in the amount of acres of wheat that were planted for this year's crop. But a bigger player is the Sooner State's fickle weather this year.
“This year, the thing that has impacted us the worst is the drought,” said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission. “There are some areas of the state where you might be seeing freeze damage.
“But overall, especially in these counties where you see numbers extremely low, a lot of it has to do with the fact they just didn't receive any moisture at all.”
So, how bad is this year's harvest expected to be?
Well, it will be considerably off from last year's. But it won't be the worst ever, estimates provided by extension specialists, crop consultants and area agronomists suggest.
At the Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association's annual meeting in Oklahoma City on Tuesday, they estimated farmers will harvest about 2.3 million acres of wheat this year, and expect they will bring in about 63.3 million bushels.
In 2017, farmers harvested 2.9 million acres of wheat, bringing in 98.6 million bushels of the crop.
But in 2014, farmers harvested just 2.8 million acres of wheat, bringing in only 47.6 million bushels.
Producers blessed, or not
The quality of this year's wheat crop depends primarily on whether or not it was planted in areas that were impacted by the winter's drought.
Don Schieber, a member of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission and a custom harvester, said Tuesday his Panhandle wheat was still alive in mid-April, that his northern Oklahoma wheat is in decent shape and that other wheat he's growing near Bixby is doing well.
But Schieber added he expects his bushels per acre to be down significantly across much of his sprawling operations.
“It depends on how many tillers we lost in the drought and the freeze,” he said.
In the case of his Panhandle wheat, he said he hopes it can be harvested for later use as hay.
As for his wheat in northern Oklahoma? “Right now, we aren't hurting, but if we get up 85 to 90 degrees and the wind keeps blowing, it isn't going to last very long.”
Schieber said he expects his average yield to be between 20 and 25 bushels an acre.
Jimmy Kinder, a farmer and rancher from Chattanooga, said he's seen how weather impacted his crop this year in an interesting way.
Kinder said his wheat is planted on 15 square miles of land that runs east and west in Cotton County, observing the line between areas in that part of Oklahoma that received rain and areas that didn't bisects his land.
The wheat growing on the east side of his land is in pretty good shape. On the other end? Not so much, he said.
“On the east, I am going to have an above-average crop,” he said, “But, if you were to jump in your pickup and go eight miles west, you would see a completely different scene.
“I feel blessed I have anything,” he said.
Plus, both Kinder and Schulte noted there is some wiggle room in this year's harvest forecast, given the crop generally is behind schedule on its growth and could rebound somewhat if more rain arrived and temperatures stayed cool.
“You can, sometimes, see plants ... make a crop,” Schulte said. “I am not saying it could become a bumper crop by any means, but maybe we will have a shot in some areas.” Kinder agreed. “Those are good predictions, but you can still have some further erosion, or some improvement, in acres and yields because of the weather, going forward,” he said.
Crop choices matter
The National Agricultural Statistics Service's information shows Oklahoma farmers planted 4.1 million acres of wheat for the season, down about 9 percent from 4.5 million acres a year ago.
That marks a third consecutive year that the number of acres planted has fallen — a trend prompted by a continued downward pressure on the crop's price.
Both Schulte and Kinder agreed that the state's farmers continue to look for ways to get the best returns on their crop investments.
“Cotton continues to increase in acres,” Kinder said. “It is pure economics, because there is more of a promise to make a profit from it than there is with other crops.”
Kinder noted now, for example, is the time for farmers to consider whether or not to take wheat acreage that won't make a crop and replant it with another, such as sorghum.
However, given the current trade situation between the U.S. and China, he said some farmers are nervous about heading that way.
“We are going to have to make that decision pretty quick, thinking about how the political weather is going to affect us,” he said.