Avenging mythical casualties

ASome royal wedding guests are already selling their gift bags on eBay. In fact today, Queen Elizabeth made 60 bucks.”

merica’s government declares “war” promiscuously — on poverty, on drugs, on cancer, etc. — except when actually going to war, which the nation has done often since it last declared war (on June 5, 1942, on Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary). But the incipient war du jour is being postponed. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says the Trump administration is “putting the trade war on hold.” The one with China, that is. Others can continue.

The armistice-beforethe-war is good news for farmers, who could use some. USA Today reports that the net income of U.S. farmers has fallen by more than half since 2013, to its lowest point since 2006, the steepest decline since the Depression. For this, blame productive farming around the world (supply outpacing demand), rotten weather in America, and perverse government in Washington. China and Mexico, responding to uncertainties caused by U.S. indignation (about China selling too much to consenting American adults, and about NAFTA enabling mighty Mexico to exploit America), are finding alternative sources of soybeans, pork and beef.

Anti-immigration Republicans have another affliction for American farmers. The Wall Street Journal reports that about half of agriculture workers are undocumented immigrants. Because more Mexicans have left than entered the United States between 2009 and 2014, the immigrant agriculture labor force is aging — and moving to higher-paying construction jobs. The Journal: “As farmers struggle to find workers, more production has moved abroad. Avocado imports have doubled over the last eight years while U.S. production (measured by acreage) has declined by about a quarter. Since 1999, domestic production has fallen for oranges (by 36 percent), grapefruits (61 percent) and asparagus (69 percent). Imports of fresh fruits and vegetables have swelled . ... This hurts workers in related industries like transportation and food processing.” This is the Republicans’ approach to succoring “victims of globalization.”

In the 1830s, in Grand Detour, Illinois, a young blacksmith designed a self-scouring steel plow that could turn the Midwest’s heavy black topsoil. John Deere then started a company and now his name is on big green machines everywhere. Today, however, the administration’s steel tariffs are causing Deere & Co. to raise prices, which will injure its competitiveness, unless the demand for American machinery is price-inelastic.

The administration’s protectionists have demanded that Mexico, as part of a renegotiated NAFTA, institute a $16 minimum wage for Mexican factory workers. So, a Republican administration purports to know more than Mexico’s labor market knows about the proper price of Mexican labor. But, then, the last know-it-all administration so aggressive about controlling wages and prices was Republican (Richard Nixon’s).

All this dictating and renegotiating is supposed to protect American jobs from the menace of NAFTA, which according to one of its ardent critics destroyed 1 million U.S. jobs in its first 20 years (1994-2014). An academic study argues that trade with China destroyed 2.4 million jobs between 1999 and 2011. But Don Boudreaux of George Mason University’s Mercatus Center says this means it took NAFTA two decades to destroy as many jobs as are erased by the normal churning of the American job market on average every 18

days. And the so-called “China shock” eliminated in 13 years as many jobs as are eliminated by the U.S. economy’s process of creative destruction, on average, every 41 days.

So, if there are to be trade “wars” with China and Mexico, they will be launched to avenge job “casualties” that are far fewer than those routinely inflicted by the domestic processes that produce American prosperity.

Conan O’Brien “Conan”