Draft sleeper success a distant memory
The franchise built on the draft is missing in the draft.
Position high up the board offers its advantages. The Seattle SuperSonics/Thunder selected Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden all in the top four picks of consecutive drafts. But even after the high lottery jackpot which laid the foundation, key cogs were found deeper in the first round of the NBA Draft.
So, when that young talent becomes costly on second contracts, it’s those developmental prospects deeper in the draft that become integral. Getting Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka at No. 24 overall. Snagging Steven Adams at No. 12 and Andre Roberson at 26 in the same draft.
But since the Thunder drafted Adams and Roberson in the first round in 2013, it’s struggled to latch onto and develop that inexpensive help that’s so critical to rosters with big payrolls.
Can it get back on track with two second-round picks in Thursday’s draft?
Five years ago, the Thunder was layering its roster depth with Adams and Roberson, prospects who didn’t have to be leaned on heavily in Year 1. A strong roster, then attempting to rebuild around Westbrook, meant future draft picks in 2016, 2018, and 2020 were sacrificed to strengthen the core with Dion Waiters, Enes Kanter and Jerami Grant, respectively.
But along the way, hitting on some of those draft picks and keeping them would be beneficial. That hasn't happened since 2013.
The good
Domantas Sabonis looks to be a keeper … for the Pacers.
Sabonis was selected with the No. 11 pick in 2016, a shrewd pickup by the Thunder the day of the draft in which the entered without a first rounder. Sabonis was a part of the deal which landed the Thunder Victor Oladipo from Orlando in a trade for Serge Ibaka.
Two years later, Sabonis plays for Indiana and has blossomed in his more traditional center spot as opposed to the floor spacing 3-point shooter the Thunder required him to be in a 2016-17 squad starving for floor spacing around Westbrook.
Sabonis was a necessary component in a trade to get Paul George, but if George leaves for nothing in free agency, it’s one less young, inexpensive contributor the Thunder has in its stable.
The unknown
One year is too soon to tell on 2017 draft pick Terrance Ferguson, who at 19 years old showed glimpses of potential and world-class athleticism as a rookie. But with two days remaining before the draft, Ferguson is the last man standing of the Thunder’s true prospect pipeline.
The duds
You can close the book on the Thunder’s 2014 and 2015 first-round picks.
Two of those three aren’t on the roster. Mitch McGary, the 21st pick in 2014, flamed out after a combination of injuries and a drug suspension, waived by the Thunder after only two seasons. Cameron Payne, No. 13 overall in 2015, plays for Chicago and has shown little consistency, multiple foot fractures, and no defense in three pro seasons. Josh Huestis, selected 29th in the 2014 draft, is 26 years old and has posted just 1.7 win shares in three pro seasons, per basketballreference.com.
The verdict
Win shares are defined as an estimate of the
number of wins contributed by a player. Since 2014, the seven players selected by the Thunder or traded to the team on draft day have combined for 6.6 win shares while in OKC. Payne and McGary each recorded 1.3 win shares as Thunder players, the highest of those seven players.
For comparison’s sake, Alex Abrines, an early second-round pick in 2013, has accounted for 4.3 win shares in two seasons. McGary, Huestis, Payne, Sabonis, and Ferguson — the Thunder’s last five first-rounders — have six win shares combined as Thunder players. Sabonis has been the high mark at 5.5 career win shares, but 4.3 of those have come in Pacers colors.
Much of the low winshare numbers for draft picks can be attributed to the Thunder’s success offering table scraps to young players. With a roster comprised of Durant, Westbrook, Roberson, Ibaka, Oladipo and Adams as starters, then depth from veterans like Waiters, Kanter, Randy Foye, and Corey Brewer over the past four seasons, young draftees haven’t received much playing time. The Thunder deserves credit for trading prospects (Payne, Sabonis) for good players like Taj Gibson and George. Doug McDermott, received in the Gibson deal, was used to get Carmelo Anthony.
But the roster remains expensive. The Thunder is projected to be in the top half of NBA payrolls even without George’s salary for 2018-19. With George at the $30 million max he could receive, the Thunder’s payroll would skyrocket to $147 million, its starting lineup alone accounting for $127.7 million in 2018-19.
It’s no given that drafting in the 20s will produce a key rotation player. Of the 44 players drafted from the 20th to 30th pick in the first round since 2014, only about a quarter of those players have become rotation players.
But something has to give. Either more is needed from the highpriced talent, or the Thunder has to find more young, inexpensive gems and grow them. If George stays, losing Sabonis was worth it. If not, the Thunder’s prospect hopes fall on Ferguson.
In either case, five years is too long for any team to go without drafting, keeping and developing an impact player, or turning them into a valuable asset.