How cash-strapped teams can find bargains
To opt in or opt out?
The decision wasn’t hard for Carmelo Anthony, nor should it have been. Barring certain stipulations, most NBA contracts are guaranteed, which means Anthony is due $27.9 million next season. So, when June 23 came, Anthony’s decision to not activate his Early Termination Option was easy.
Those decisions aren’t so easy for potential free agents during a salary cap climate that looks far different than the great cap spike of 2016.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing for the Thunder or other cash-strapped teams.
Some free agents are still taking a risk of opting out and seeking long-term deals or comparable money. In a market of limited cap space, teams like the Thunder could find bargains outside of the max free agents.
In 2016, an anticipated cap spike of $24 million meant teams were flush with cash. Entering July 1, only eight teams were under the projected $101 million
salary cap (Dallas, Chicago, Phoenix, Indiana, Brooklyn, Orlando, Sacramento, Atlanta).
Even when the teams which are close to getting under the cap do so – like Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Lakers – they’ll be doing so with eyes on big free agents. LeBron James, Paul George, and Chris Paul are among those big names who are expected to command max salaries after opting out of the final season of their current contract.
Where does that leave the smaller names?
It leaves free agents like Thaddeus Young, Rudy Gay and maybe even Enes Kanter if he opts out of his final guaranteed season of $18.6 million (he won’t. That’s a lot of money for a center) with few options:
They could sign with bad teams for more money. The upside is the paycheck. But those bad teams with the cap space to overpay for the aforementioned free agents are bad for a reason: Bottoming out on
purpose with young talent. So, does a veteran value the payday more than the chance at a ring or even contention?
They could sign a minimum deal. The David West approach. A year before the big salary cap spike, West left more than $11 million on the table with Indiana in 2015.
He’s been playing the last three seasons on minimum salaries, the last two with the Warriors, which has resulted in two championships.
They could re-sign with the same team. Opting out a la Kyle O’Quinn opting out of $4.2 million with the Knicks, could mean meeting halfway: re-signing with the same team for a bigger one-year salary now in order to help your team free up cap space for the upcoming season.
They could sign for the midlevel exception. This is where the Thunder comes in. Last season, it signed Patrick Patterson to a threeyear, $16.4 million deal with its taxpayer’s midlevel exception of $5.4 million per season. Patterson was coming off a contract in which he averaged $6 million. So, the market didn’t present a raise for Patterson in yearly salary, but an opportunity to sign for more guaranteed years (and a player option in Year 3).
That option could be enticing to the free agents who won’t be getting the George and James treatment this summer. But ESPN front office insider Bobby Marks doesn’t see teams committing to long-term deals.
“By 2019 when all of the summer of 2016 contracts come off, you’ll have a lot of teams with room,” Marks told The Oklahoman. “It’s basically like throwing food into the crowd to see who they take. Or if you want to go to Phoenix or Dallas, Atlanta or Chicago, teams that are rebuilding, that’s your other option.”
The question is how appealing is the Thunder’s situation compared to others? Golden State and Houston will be tax teams with better offenses and clearer paths to the title. Teams like Utah or San Antonio will be able to offer more money as a non-taxpayer.
Opt-outs offers options. What those are depend on the player’s priorities leading up to July 1.