What will Paul George do?
The answer may depend greatly on what the future holds for LeBron James.
Unless it wants to hit rock bottom and head back into the lottery, the Thunder faces some luxury tax trials.
The bottom might not be a bad idea if Paul George doesn’t re-sign when free agency opens July 1. While George is reportedly not a lock to sign with the Lakers, his departure would be the second crushing blow to the Thunder’s chances at contention and a gamble-and-loss in this Warriors Era of the NBA.
The aftermath would be a team with Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Roberson, and Alex Abrines as the top five players in salary making a combined $102.8 million next season.
In order to contend, NBA teams have to be topheavy in salary, but that salary has to be allocated to pieces that will assure championship contention or progression toward that goal. Otherwise, you’re
overpaying for middling results when a rebuild is necessary.
What will be the cost of the Thunder next season? Barring a radical trade of Westbrook or Adams, much of that comes down to the futures of George, Anthony and Grant.
A few notes:
•The following scenarios do not account for signing minimum salary free agents (Ex. Raymond Felton), rookies or mid-level exception candidates. These are base projections, including a hypothetical number for Grant, who is considered around the league to be a candidate for a salary around the $8.6 million non-taxpayer exception. These numbers could be even higher.
•The estimated tax numbers are under the assumption that the Thunder will end up as a repeater team, meaning it will finish the 2018-19 season in the luxury tax for the fourth time in five seasons. That would qualify OKC for higher tax penalties on the dollar. NBA teams have until the end of the season to get under the projected $123 million luxury tax line and avoid those stiff penalties. Scenario 1: George, Anthony and Grant all stay
Obviously, the Thunder wants to re-sign George, who would command the maximum salary next season ($30.3 million). That would make Grant a very expensive reserve. If he earns something close to the non-taxpayer mid-level ($8.6 million), that's a $45 million tax bill for his salary alone, meaning Grant would cost $53 million next season. Needless to say, a first-round exit at this price would not be acceptable. Total estimated salaries: $155 million Total estimated tax: $130 million
Scenario 2: George signs, Anthony is bought out or stretched, Grant is re-signed
The Thunder still pays taxes on Anthony’s salary whether it's $27.9 million or a lower negotiated buyout. If Anthony’s salary is stretched over three seasons, however, at an average of $9.3 million, the Thunder would save close to $100 million this year. The Thunder would still be paying taxes on Anthony until 2021, however, which would hurt future cap flexibility.
Keep in mind: Buying out Anthony now would mean a high bill in 2018-19 (see above), but more flexibility in the next two seasons with him completely off the books. Yet, if Anthony was bought out, OKC would still be paying the same monster taxes for no on-court return. Total estimated salaries (if Anthony is stretched): $137 million Total estimated tax (if Anthony is stretched): $40 million
Scenario 3: George signs, Anthony is bought out or stretched, Grant leaves
The Thunder would still be in the tax if Anthony was stretched, and would go higher if it added a $5.3 million mid-level player (possibly Grant?) and minimum contracts. Total estimated salaries: $147.1 (Anthony buyout); $128.5 million (Anthony stretched) Total estimated tax: $84.6 million (Anthony buyout); $13.8 million (Anthony stretched)
Scenario 4: George leaves, Anthony stays, Grant is re-signed
George gone leaves the Thunder without one of the league’s best two-way wings, and still above the $123 million luxury tax line if Grant is re-signed. The Thunder would have to weigh how much tax it’s willing to pay for a team which clearly would be a non-contender without George. The savings would be astronomical. The team would be worse and still expensive. Total estimated salaries: $125 million Total estimated tax: $6.08 million
Scenario 5: George leaves, Anthony is bought out or stretched, Grant is re-signed
If the Anthony contract is stretched, the Thunder will be under the luxury tax and able to comfortably re-sign Grant. But OKC will lose offensive punch and a chance at contention, which may change its spending philosophy. This would open the opportunity to use a nontaxpayer mid-level of around $8.6 million per season on a free agent, and still avoid the luxury tax. Total estimated salaries: $125.4 million (Anthony buyout); $101.3 million (Anthony stretch) Total estimated tax: $6.08 million (Anthony buyout); none since under the tax (Anthony stretch)
Scenario 6: George leaves, Anthony is bought out or stretched, Grant leaves
A poor team, but an option if the market for Grant gets too expensive to justify an overpay. The Thunder would presumably fill the gaps with minimum salary veterans, rookies and an $8.6 million exception signing ... or a trade. Total estimated salaries: $116.8 million (Anthony buyout); $98.2 million (Anthony stretch)
Total tax: none since under the tax