Thunder in need of internal fixes
As the Warriors added another All-Star piece to an already All-Star studded team, the feeling of inevitability grew across the NBA. The Thunder can only worry about itself.
The Twitter pandemonium outside of Golden State’s coup of DeMarcus Cousins on Monday was about the Western Conference’s monopoly of the NBA’s elite talent. Of the 16 active players who have made All-NBA First Team in their careers, 13 currently play in the West.
And free agency isn’t over.
LeBron James going to the Lakers deepens the pool of Western Conference teams fighting for a playoff spot.
Outside of a trade, the over-the-salarycap Thunder has limited means to make an improvement unless its internal.
“It's our job to keep moving forward, to identify it, not just identify issues, but bring solutions,” general manager Sam Presti said at his end-of-season media availability in May. “I'm confident that we're going to do that because that's what we've done for 10 years.
“We have to own the fact that for our standards, 48 wins, a homecourt advantage, and seventh-best net rating for this particular team, we felt like that wasn't where we wanted to be.”
How does the Thunder get to where it wants to be?
A smarter offense
In four consecutive seasons, Russell Westbrook has shot a higher percentage on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers than 3-pointers off the dribble.
In the last five seasons, he’s 34.1 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and 30.6 percent on 3-pointers off the dribble.
In those five seasons, Westbrook has shot 1,218 3-pointers off the dribble to 464 catch-and-shoot 3’s.
If Westbrook is a passable 3-point shooter after no dribbles, and a poor one off multiple dribbles,
why is he still taking so many of the shot he makes at a lower percentage?
“His ability to continue to catch and shoot, knock shots down, I think is a big part of his continued evolution as a player,” Presti said.
Westbrook’s ball dominance plays into it. When he has the ball, Westbrook is one of the most dynamic players in the NBA. When he doesn’t, he can be stationary, as can Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and other players in the Thunder offense.
The Thunder needs Westbrook to shoot. But the type of shots are as important as shot volume, and the Thunder has capable 3-point shooters that don’t get enough attempts.
Alex Abrines shot 40.8 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season, better than every Houston player except Chris Paul. Yet, Abrines had fewer catch-and-shoot attempts (201) than Houston’s Gerald Green (212) ... in 34 more games.
Much of that is Houston’s 3-point-centric
style, or defenses running Abrines or Patrick Patterson off the 3-point line. But Westbrook, Anthony and George have to be better at finding shooters off the attention they draw.
A more disciplined defense
“The best defenses are the ones that force the most inefficient shots,” Presti said. “We as a unit didn't do a great job of that.”
The Thunder finished as a Top 10 defense, but started to come unglued more when Andre Roberson suffered his season-ending knee injury in January. In the regular season, only two teams gave up a higher percentage of opponent shot attempts from 3 than the Thunder’s 36.3 — Chicago and Sacramento. That dropped following Roberson’s injury to 35.1, but opponents’ field goal percentage from 3 jumped from 35.4 to 38.2 (fourthworst in the NBA after Jan. 27). That bled into the postseason against Utah.
Inside, Jerami Grant has been a mixed bag as a small-ball center, as the Thunder has allowed 108.3 points per 100 possessions
(minimum 15 minutes per lineup) in those lineups. Regardless of Anthony’s future in Oklahoma City, Grant will have to play more minutes at power forward alongside Adams. Nerlens Noel was added in hopes of adding stability to the second unit defense.
A better Donovan
A visiting scout from another NBA team was watching the Thunder during the regular season. As the Thunder transitioned to offense, Billy Donovan yelled instructions.
“They’re not even listening,” the stunned scout said aloud to no one in particular.
Too many times last season, Donovan’s vision went unfulfilled. The Thunder’s ball-dominant lineups of Westbrook, George and Anthony were good, among the best in the league relative to minutes played, but not committed to moving the ball or themselves consistently. That has a ceiling.
"For me as a coach, I feel responsible in terms of being able to help them see that more clearly,” Donovan said after one of the Thunder’s low points of the season, a 13-point drubbing by Orlando on the road. “And for whatever reason I haven’t been able to help them see that clearly enough, because that’s what we have to do. There’s no getting around it. This is what the game requires, this is what you have to do, this is what the game calls to do."
“Coach is definitely right,” Westbrook said that night. “It's something that all of us individually have to figure out to what that is to be able to not fall back.”
Donovan has two seasons remaining on his contract.
The Thunder has Westbrook, George and Adams signed for at least the next three seasons. Donovan has a clear core, and as of now the backing of his front office.
But the Route-1 simplicity of the Thunder’s offense was predictable in the postseason against a disciplined Jazz defense with Rudy Gobert as a defensive anchor. As Donovan said, it falls on him for the Thunder to see what he wants more clearly. If that doesn’t happen, the Thunder's problems will only be exacerbated in the loaded Western Conference.