Trends give national GOP a reason to worry

OKLAHOMA’S five U.S. House seats have long been held by Republicans and that will almost certainly remain the case after November’s elections. In other parts of the country, however, concern is growing — particularly after special elections last week — that Democrats will win enough seats to reclaim control of the House.

Although much can change in three months — in late May, the headline on one CNN political analyst’s story read “Recent special elections suggest Democrats may not ride wave in November” — these concerns strike us as legitimate.

Democrats need to win 23 seats to become the majority party in the House. The website RealClearPolitics considers 40 seats toss-ups, and that total could grow.

Ohio’s 12th Congressional District has been a Republican stronghold for decades. The last time the seat was open, in 2000, Pat Tiberi won it by 10 points and he had little trouble winning re-election after that as the district grew more Republican. Tiberi’s resignation from the House in January set up last week’s special election.

“In short, Democrats had no business being competitive here, even with a good candidate …” wrote Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. Yet the Democratic candidate was highly competitive, losing to Republican Troy Balderson by just a point (pending the count of about 3,500 provisional ballots).

That’s a concern, because as Trende noted, roughly 60 GOP-held House districts are less Republican than Ohio’s 12th District.

In Washington state, which uses “jungle” primaries in which all candidates run on the same ballot and the top two advance, two Republican House incumbents struggled.

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House, won just 47.5 percent of the vote to eke past the No. 2 vote-getter, a Democrat. McMorris Rodgers is seeking an eighth term. And Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler, a four-term incumbent, advanced to November’s general election but Democratic candidates won more votes than Republicans in her district — one that Trende says leans Republican by 4 points and “had previously been considered uncompetitive.”

With the economy doing so well, “there really is no reason Republicans should find themselves in this predicament,” Trende says. He suggests the roller coaster that is the Trump presidency is having an impact, a sentiment shared by The Wall Street Journal’s opinion page.

The Journal cited figures from veteran D.C. pollster Ed Goeas showing 31 percent to 33 percent of voters solidly behind Trump, with another 11 percent who endorse Trump’s policies even if they doubt his persona. Another 10 percent like the policy side of Trump but strongly dislike his persona and thus turn thumbsdown on job performance.

That last group constitutes swing voters who can make or break Republican candidates representing suburban districts, the Journal said. Those voters “aren’t impressed by Mr. Trump’s name-calling, his brawls with the media or taunts of LeBron James. They don’t like the debacle of family separations … ”

A little less volatility from the White House might help, but there’s no reason to believe that’s in the offing. Consequently, Election Night could be a nailbiter for the national GOP.