Sooners’ playoff hopes aren’t tiny
The Sooners were riding high, with a star quarterback, then suffered a debilitating loss to Texas that had no business happening, and OU went tumbling down the college football chain.
The Sooners were riding high, with a star quarterback, then suffered an inexplicable October loss that had no business happening, and OU went tumbling down the college football food chain.
The former tale is from 2015. The latter from 2017. The Sooners made the College Football Playoff both seasons.
Now we’re in 2018, when the Sooners were riding high, then suffered a discouraging loss to Texas that cost a coach his job, and OU went tumbling down the college football food chain.
This is not a prediction that the Sooners will make the Orange Bowl or the Cotton Bowl, national semifinal sites in December. This is a warning. Don’t get too worked up about mid-season status and don’t lose faith. That’s true if you’re the Sooners or Georgia or Michigan or any team that seems a long shot to make the
Football Four.
“Everybody talks about us being so beat down,” Lincoln Riley said. “I mean, we’re 5-1 and one of the top 10 teams in the country right now. So, we’re not that beat down. We’re just chasing our best game. We’re trying to play our best ball. The sky’s not falling here. We’re doing just fine.”
Well, just fine is a little over the top. The OU defense was so abysmal in the Cotton Bowl that Mike Stoops lost his job.
But the Sooners actually are in far greater shape now than they were in either 2015 or 2017.
In Week 8 of 2015, OU was ranked 17th in the AP poll. Two weeks later, when the playoff committee released its first ranking of the season, the Sooners had climbed only to 15th. But at season’s end, there was OU, ranked fourth and in the playoff. Heck, the Sooners had been up to No. 3 the week before.
In Week 8 of 2017, the Sooners were ranked ninth by AP, up from 12th the week after losing to Iowa State. Two weeks later, OU was No. 5 according to the committee, and by season’s end, the Sooners were ranked second and in the Rose Bowl against Georgia.
Now, in Week 8 of 2018, the Sooners are ninth in the AP poll.
Of course, none of this means anything unless the Sooners start tackling the man with the ball, starting Saturday in Fort Worth. A defense as bad as we saw against Texas could drive this team into an 8-4 ditch. But an offense this good could drag a mediocre defense all the way to the national semifinals. Baker Mayfield’s bunch did it last season; Kyler Murray’s could do it this season.
And it’s not like the Sooners haven’t had some help since that dismal day in Dallas.
Last Saturday, LSU’s thumping of Georgia crippled talk of the SEC getting two playoff teams this season. Still could happen, but the odds are longer.
And Oregon’s victory over Washington pinned a second defeat on the Pac-12’s best playoff hope. The Oregon-Washington State winner this Saturday emerges with only one defeat, but neither is likely to trump a 12-1 Big 12 champion.
Sure, the Big 12 needs some more help. A Notre Dame loss would do wonders for Big 12 morale. If someone would beat Clemson, that would help, too. Or maybe the Big Ten could start beating up on each other, which already has started happening, with Michigan State’s upset of Penn State.
“There’s really good football being played right now in the Big 12, and around the country as well, but if somebody can survive the championship with only one loss, they should definitely be in,” said Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury.
Well, not necessarily. Big 12 titles and 12-1 seasons aren’t won in a vacuum. Other teams in other conferences matter, too. There are no guarantees.
But know this. In the four-year history of the playoff, no Power 5 Conference champion with fewer than two losses has been bypassed.
Yes, TCU and Baylor each went 11-1 in 2014 and were skipped over. But they were Big 12 co-champions, declared so by the league back when the Big 12 was bound and determined to shoot itself in the foot.
Three Big Ten teams with only one loss have been bypassed — 12-1 Wisconsin in 2017, 12-1 Iowa in 2015 and 11-1 Ohio State in 2015. But none was the Big Ten champion. Those Badgers and Hawkeyes lost in Big Ten title games; those Buckeyes didn’t even make it that far.
The truth is, it’s an uphill climb for the Sooners. Their biggest problem is not the selection part. Their biggest problem is the 12-1 part. Winning out with that defense is going to require herculean feats by Murray and Co.
But get to 12-1 — and the same goes for Texas and even West Virginia — and blessings tend to take care of themselves.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. You can also view his personality page at newsok.com/berrytramel.