• The Thunder needs Alex Abrines more than ever,
The 3-point-centric NBA has become a league where a guy like Alex Abrines should be thriving. Then there was Sunday’s game, which has become a microcosm of Abrines’ career in Oklahoma City.
Abrines made two nice passes for assists, but as soon as he looked comfortable his night was over, courtesy of an inadvertent Nerlens Noel elbow to the face.
Abrines is exactly what the poor shooting Thunder needs and the NBA covets. A history of injuries, however, raises questions as to if he'll ever be a consistent contributor in a Thunder uniform.
The 25-year-old is in his third season in the NBA, yet still hasn’t carved out consistent minutes off the Thunder’s bench despite having the league’s most valued skill. Abrines has only played 20 minutes or more in 39 of his career 146 regular-season games.
Part of that is Thunder coach Billy Donovan’s wonky rotations through three full seasons. Part of it is Abrines’ struggles on the defensive end, which he’s made improvements on since Andre Roberson’s season-ending injury last season.
Also, a major part of the Abrines story is injuries which have been out of his control.
Abrines was back at practice Wednesday and Donovan said he is trending toward playing Thursday against Boston, but Abrines has missed an average of 11 games per season in his first two NBA campaigns.
While upping his games played from 68 to 75 last season, he did so while nagging injuries popped up frequently, injuries ranging from knee soreness to a concussion to offseason hernia surgery in May.
Donovan said while the injuries haven’t affected him playing Abrines or the shooter’s rhythm, they’ve affected his stamina.
“That’s where I think it shows up sometimes with the pace of the game now, how much running around you’re doing,” Donovan said. “It impacts how long of stretches he goes for on consistent minutes.
“When he’s coming back off some of this stuff and he doesn’t have his wind, he’s obviously going to get fatigued a bit earlier. When I see he’s fatigued and maybe he’s a little late on defense and his shot’s a little short, then I think he needs to come out and rest because he’s not going to be as effective as a player.”
Even if Abrines isn’t shooting effectively, his presence on the floor loosens defenses to the Thunder’s bread and butter. So much of the Thunder’s offense is predicated off of Russell Westbrook with Steven Adams as a screen setter in the pick-and-roll.
Whether Abrines is in the corner or at the top of the 3-point line, he forces a backpedaling defense to make a splitsecond decision: Step to Adams or to the shooting threat.
“It’s a lot of distance to cover, going from the hoop to the corner, especially if it’s a bullet pass,” Adams said. "If it’s a straight-line pass mate, there’s no defense for that honestly.
“If you have great shooters, it’s very tough. Especially if they move around a lot, it’s one of those tough things to still help and be able to get back if they have a quick release.”
A silver lining for the Thunder in an 0-3 start: It’s fifth in the NBA in potential assists per game. A potential assist is any pass to a teammate who shoots within one dribble of receiving the ball.
The problem is players on the end of those Thunder potential assists either aren’t good shooters or aren’t making shots.
Assist points created are points created by a player or team through their assists.
The Thunder is the only team in the NBA which is averaging fewer assist points created per game (46.3) than potential assists (47.3).
Even the Chicago Bulls, who have been the biggest ball-stopping team in the league with league-low pergame averages of 228 passes and 27.3 potential assists, are averaging 41 assist points created per game, well above their potential assist average.
“Usually you see a low number of assists when you have that kind of shooting,” Donovan said of the team’s assist totals despite the poor shooting. “So, our guys are trying to move and pass the ball, which has been encouraging.”
Per NBA.com, no team has taken more “wide open” 3-pointers (closest defender within six feet or more) than the Thunder’s 19 per game while shooting such a bad percentage (22.8) from 3. Odds are in the Thunder’s favor that its wide-open shooters will eventually make more shots, but those wideopen shots might not be as good as a contested Abrines 3-pointer.
Somehow, OKC is averaging 20.7 assists per game, but it’s not getting the most points out of them. The easy answer would be to stop shooting so many 3-pointers.
What’s more logical, though, is ensuring whoever is taking those shots is the right player. Whether or not Abrines’ body — or Donovan — will ever allow him to be that guy is the big question.