Ballot measures bear watching across nation

THE five state questions on November’s ballot in Oklahoma are among 155 being decided by voters in 37 states that day, according to Ballotpedia. The proposals run the length of the ideological gamut and bear watching.

Oklahoma and five other states will vote on “Marsy’s Law” measures, which solidify the rights of crime victims in the justice system. Will majorities in all six states vote the same way, or will there be a split decision?

In June, Oklahomans voted to legalize medical marijuana. In November, voters in Missouri and Utah will consider medical marijuana measures, while voters in Michigan and North Dakota will consider legalizing recreational use. If the Missouri measure passes, it will be interesting to see if implementation goes better than it has so far here.

Ohio voters will consider a criminal justice measure that would reduce drug-possession offenses to misdemeanors, limit incarceration for some probation violations and encourage inmates to participate in various programs. Associated savings would be redirected to drug treatment programs. Oklahomans approved similar reforms in 2016. So far, real savings have yet to appear, so it will be worth watching to see if Ohio generates better results.

In Florida and Oregon, ballot measures would require supermajority support in the Legislature to enact tax increases — two-thirds in Florida and three-fifths in Oregon. Oklahoma has long had a three-fourths supermajority requirement. However, lawmakers have evaded that restriction thanks to legal hairsplitting. Removal of an exemption is not considered a tax increase, despite increasing taxes, and lawmakers have raised many fees. Thus, it’s interesting that the Florida measure requires a supermajority to raise taxes and fees, while Oregon’s ballot question would require supermajority support to raise taxes and fees, and to make any changes to tax exemptions, credits or deductions that result in increased revenue. It won’t be surprising if similar measures are pursued in Oklahoma in coming years.

Medicaid expansion continues to be debated in Oklahoma, so ballot measures in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and Utah that would mandate Medicaid expansion will be worth following. Should all four states approve expansion, backers in Oklahoma will argue they have momentum on their side.

Other ballot measures appear unlikely to inspire duplicate efforts in Oklahoma but could still have indirect impact. One measure in California would allow local communities to impose rent control. If passed, that will mostly result in a reduction in the quantity and quality of housing available in California communities, as has been the case elsewhere rent control has been tried. That in turn may lead to continued out-migration from California, some of which is already reaching Oklahoma according to IRS data.

A ballot measure in Arizona would require that 50 percent of energy come from renewable resources by 2030, a plan that would mostly increase electricity rates and reduce reliability, which may also prompt out-migration.

State-level ballot measures often provide the first sign of national political trends. Thus, Oklahomans have reason to pay attention to outcomes not just here, but nationwide.