Voters not sold on candidates’ skills

THERE is an old joke about a baseball manager who, after watching a rookie make mistakes in center field, declares he will show the kid how to play the position. The manager promptly misses a line drive, throws down his glove and says, “You’ve got center field so messed up nobody can play it.”

Recent polling suggests Oklahoma voters may hold a similar attitude about many Republican candidates this year. They seem to doubt anyone can really do the job.

A poll conducted Oct. 23-25 by SoonerPoll.com for two TV news stations showed many statewide candidates remain below 50 percent support, even in races where only the GOP candidate appears viable.

The governor’s race has drawn the most interest. SoonerPoll showed Republican Kevin Stitt leading Democrat Drew Edmondson by almost 5 percentage points with just over 46 percent support. The closeness of that race is somewhat surprising but hardly shocking — it involves two well-funded, credible candidates, and outgoing Republican Gov. Mary Fallin’s unpopularity is a drag on Stitt.

Instead, what jumps out is that few candidates in other statewide races have support above 50 percent.

The GOP candidates for lieutenant governor, state treasurer, state superintendent of public instruction, labor commissioner and insurance commissioner polled between 45 percent and 46 percent. Most held double-digit leads over opponents, but the share of undecided voters was large.

Admittedly, secondary statewide races are low-tier affairs that don’t receive much attention. But 52 percent of respondents in the poll described themselves as “somewhat” or “very” conservative, and 58 percent have a favorable opinion of President Trump. Those would seem to be favorable conditions that would allow a mainstream Republican candidate to clear the 50 percent bar with ease. Instead, many voters appeared reluctant to make that call less than two weeks to go before the election.

In the treasurer’s race, Republican Randy McDaniel doesn’t even face a Democrat. His opponent is an independent with little money or name identification. Yet McDaniel’s support remained below 50 percent.

Similarly, in the state auditor’s race, GOP candidate Cindy Byrd’s only opponent is a libertarian. However, she is one of three statewide candidates who polled above 50 percent — the others were incumbent Attorney General Mike Hunter and incumbent Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony. All three of those candidates were on the ballot in competitive primaries and runoffs, while McDaniel was not, so perhaps their name ID is better.

But then incumbent state Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, lieutenant governor candidate Matt Pinnell and labor commissioner candidate Leslie Osborn were also on the ballot for both a GOP primary and runoff. All three are polling around 45 percent.

Thus, one suspects the overriding factor is that the fiscal mismanagement and dysfunction of the past several years has tarnished the Republican brand in Oklahoma. This hasn’t translated into widespread support for Democrats yet. But it is showing up in lukewarm support for virtually all major Republican candidates, even those who played no role in state government problems.

For Republican candidates to seal the deal, they need to convince voters that they really can play center field.