Urban-rural shifts evident in results
THE top-line numbers in Oklahoma races this week were largely unchanged from past election cycles — Republicans dominated. But clear shifts were seen in the rural-urban divide.
In the governor’s race, Republican Kevin Stitt won easily. Democrat Drew Edmondson, seen as the best candidate his party could put forward, received roughly the same share of the vote as most Democrats in recent election cycles. In 2010, the last open-seat race for governor, the Democratic candidate received just under 40 percent. Edmondson improved on that performance, but only marginally (42 percent). And the raw number of votes Stitt received this year was greater than the number cast to elect Gov. Mary Fallin in the 2010 “tea party” wave.
All Republican candidates in statewide races won by comfortable margins. GOP numbers increased in the Oklahoma House and declined just one seat in the Senate, where Republicans still hold a 39-9 edge.
But shifting attitudes were clear in rural and urban areas. Edmondson carried just four of 77 counties, but one was Oklahoma County, where he received 54 percent. Stitt was dominant in rural areas, but urban areas were harder fought. Stitt, of Tulsa, narrowly won Tulsa County.
The rural-urban split was visible in legislative races as well. In the House, Republicans won seven seats previously held by Democrats. Six were in rural areas. Meanwhile, Democrats partly offset their losses by flipping four urban seats. In the House, there will be only five Democrats left who represent areas outside the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metros.
In the state Senate, Democrats won two Oklahoma City seats but lost a seat in Lawton.
The “Remember in November” movement of teachers didn’t pack much punch in the general election. Republicans easily won statewide races, and several legislative candidates targeted by teacher groups won re-election, including Sen. Marty Quinn, R-Claremore, and Rep. Kevin McDugle, R-Broken Arrow. While opposition to tax increases appeared to play a role in the defeat of some Republicans in primaries, it had no obvious impact in the general election. Incumbents who opposed tax increases were all re-elected easily, while two incumbent Democrats who supported tax increases were defeated, including designated minority leader Steve Kouplen of Beggs.
Most notably, Stitt ran as a critic of this year’s tax increases, saying increased teacher pay and school funding should come from revenue generated by economic growth and through better management of state finances. Edmondson supported the tax increases and called for more. Stitt’s victory signals Oklahoma voters remain skeptical of tax increases and want better financial management.
It’s now up to Stitt to make good on his promises, and he will have to use the bully pulpit to maximum effect to get the Legislature off high-center. While Republicans dominate the Legislature, many victors in GOP primaries this year ran as fiscal liberals on a platform that often contradicted Stitt’s views.
While urban areas are shifting, Stitt’s election shows most Oklahomans support fiscal conservatism even as they desire competent governance that has been lacking. To succeed, Stitt must deliver both.