Pelosi’s path to speaker’s post may not be smooth

ASKED recently about the position of speaker of the U.S. House, Rep.-elect Kendra Horn, D-Oklahoma City, said she hadn’t decided whether to support Nancy Pelosi. Horn is hardly alone, underscoring the ambivalence many members feel about Pelosi reassuming the post she held from 2007 to 2011.

A few days after winning election to represent Oklahoma’s 5th District, Horn said she wasn’t sure who she would back as speaker because she didn’t know who would be running. However, she added, “I do think the Democratic Party and Democratic leadership, they need new leaders to step in and fresh blood.”

Pelosi and her team don’t fit that description. Pelosi, D-Calif., is 78. Her top lieutenant, Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland, is 79. Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, another member of the inner circle, is 78.

On “Meet the Press” on Nov. 11, Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said Democrats need Pelosi as speaker because she’s “the strongest general that we have” and the “best tactician.” Yet many new Democratic House members have made it known the caucus needs a newcomer in charge.

A dozen Democratic freshmen have said that they will not support Pelosi, who last week thanked Al Sharpton for “saving America.” In addition, 12 incumbent Democratic representatives have said they wouldn’t support Pelosi.

It’s possible the Democrats will hold 233 seats when all the elections are finalized. Pelosi needs 218 votes to become speaker of the 435-member House. If all the Democrats who have said they don’t want her as speaker vote that way, then she would come up short of that total.

However, it’s possible these anti-Pelosi Democrats will opt to vote “present” instead of “no” during the vote by the full House on Jan. 3. For every two “present” votes, the total number needed to become speaker is reduced by one.

Republican insider and political analyst Karl Rove noted in The Wall Street Journal that in addition to freshmen and incumbents who have said they want a change, there are at least 12 other newcomers who during their campaigns didn’t say where they stood. Those who won Republican seats “could suffer politically for supporting her,” Rove wrote, while staunch progressive newcomers such as New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez “could take fire from the left for embracing the ‘establishment’ choice.”

An article at nbcnews.com pointed out a problem for Pelosi opponents — no Democrats have formally said they will run against her. Thus, Democrats are stuck “between the option of an unpopular Pelosi who’s problematic for many of the House freshmen who just won, and the option of no real Plan B.”

If someone does step forward — Rep. Marcia Fudge of Ohio is considering it — those members and incoming members who have pledged to oppose Pelosi could switch to avoid incurring her wrath. It wouldn’t be the first time self-preservation was placed atop a lawmaker’s list of priorities.