Common threads in close losses
Seven of the Thunder's past 11 games have been clutch games, defined by NBA.com as a game in which the point differential is five or less in the last five minutes. With a 113-109 loss at Houston Tuesday OKC fell to 2-5 in those games.
“The rebounding, some of the turnovers, we could have probably executed a little better on certain occasions in the second half,” Thunder coach Billy Donovan said Tuesday, “those were the things I thought were impactful.”
The Thunder has played 17 clutch games this season, per NBA.com, and ranks No. 28 in the league with a .353 win percentage in those situations.
That statistic can be deceiving. Clutch losses can include miraculous comebacks that fall just short. Clutch wins can include large leads squandered. But as the Thunder’s schedule gets harder, it has seen an increase in close games. Its seven clutch games this month reveal a couple patterns.
First-quarter curse
While the Thunder has outscored its opponents by a total of 42 points in first quarters, it tends to get into clutch situations after falling behind early.
Of OKC’s past seven clutch games, it entered the second period with a lead in just one, a 118-114 loss to New Orleans.
The Thunder outscored the Pelicans 28-25 in the first quarter of that meeting.
Defensive rebounding
The inability to control defensive boards wasn’t just an issue Tuesday night. In the Thunder’s two clutch wins this month, 107-106 at Utah and 114-112 at Brooklyn, OKC grabbed over 43 defensive rebounds in each, compared to 37 or fewer in each of its five losses.
It’s a small sample size, but inconsistency on defensive boards has been a theme for much of OKC’s season, resulting in second-chance points for its opponents. That was especially apparent in the Thunder’s loss Tuesday, when the Rockets scored 23 second-chance points.
“The unique part about the defensive rebounding,” Donovan said earlier this month, “is that the margin between being a top-five defensive rebounding team and being 25 is probably two rebounds, so you’re not talking about these insurmountable gains that we need to make.”
Indeed, the difference between the fifth-best defensive-rebounding team in the NBA, New Orleans (36.1 defensive rebounds), and No. 25 Minnesota (33.1) is three rebounds per game.
The Thunder sits at No. 8 with 35.7 defensive rebounds per game, but Donovan said he believes his team has the athleticism to rise to No. 1 or 2.