Thunder has tough foes but lots of home games left
The back third of the NBA regular season begins Thursday, and the Thunder sits third in the Western Conference, two games behind the second-place Nuggets and three games ahead of the fourth-place Blazers.
The Thunder has been playing well, winning 11 of 13, but there are warning signs that the schedule could stiffen. And indeed, the Thunder faces the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, if you go by opponents' winning percentage.
But I dove deep into the schedules of the West teams, looking at three factors — remaining opponents' winning percentage, home/road breakdown and number of remaining back-to-backs. Playing the second of two consecutive nights can be quite taxing.
So let's look at the data:
Opponents' winning percentage
1. OKC .572
2. Denver .540
3. Minnesota .538
4. LA Lakers .520
5. Dallas .511
6. New Orleans .503
7. Golden State .502
8. Houston .502
9. Portland .493
10. San Antonio .488
11. Memphis .488
12. Sacramento .485
13. LA Clippers .484
14. Phoenix .460
15. Utah .452
It's a tough road for the Thunder. Starting Friday, the Thunder plays a fivegame stretch against Utah, Sacramento, Denver, Philadelphia and San Antonio. Starting March 7, the Thunder plays a nine-game stretch against Portland, the Clippers, Utah, Brooklyn, Indiana, Golden State, Miami and Toronto back-to-back.
So absolutely, the Thunder faces a tough grind.
Home/Road
Quality of opponent is not the only barometer of a tough schedule. I would argue that it's not the best barometer of a tough schedule.
Home games are preferable to games against weak opponents. What's easier, at Utah or home against Denver? I'd say the latter, even though the Nuggets have the better team this year.
So here is how the West teams rank in remaining home-road breakdown:
1. 13-10 (NO)
2. 14-11 (OKC)
3. 13-11 (LAC)
T-4. 12-11 (SA, MEM, PHX)
T-7. 13-12 (Utah, LAL) T-9. 12-13 (GS, DEN, HOU, MIN, DAL)
14. 11-14 (SAC)
15. 9-16 (POR)
Back-to-backs
The bane of all NBA schedules are backto-backs. Playing on consecutive nights.
So much so that the season was lengthened to limit back-to-backs and eliminate the stretches of four-games-in-five-nights.
Here's how the West teams rank in remaining back-to-backs:
T-1. 3 (POR, PHX, SA, NO)
T-5. 4 (DEN, LAL, LAC, SAC, DAL, HOU) T-11. 5 (UTAH, GS, OKC)
15. 6 (MIN)
OK. So let's put all the data together and see who really has the toughest — and easiest remaining schedules in the West. Leading with the easiest first:
1. Phoenix: Too bad an advantageous schedule is wasted on a team that doesn't want to win.
2. LA Clippers: I don't think the Clippers organization wants to win, either. It traded away Tobias Harris and now hopes to keep its draft pick, which is lottery-protected. But the Clippers still have some talent, and an easy schedule.
3. New Orleans: Another team that would prefer to lose. Have I mentioned how much I hate the lottery?
4. San Antonio: Finally, a team interested in winning. Look for the Spurs to take advantage of the schedule and move up from their current tied-for-sixth status.
5. Utah: The Jazz has a relatively easy schedule. Utah is tied for sixth with the Spurs. Can either or both catch the Blazers or Rockets or both?
6. Memphis: The Grizzlies don't want to win. They have one fewer win than the Wizards and two fewer than New Orleans and Dallas. Memphis would like to keep it that way.
7. Portland: The Blazers have only nine home games left. That's problematic. Portland is in fourth place but is just as close to eighth as it is to third.
8. Sacramento: The Kings are a game behind the Clippers for the final playoff berth and two games ahead of the Lakers. Sacramento might just make the playoffs.
9. LA Lakers: The Lakers want to make the playoffs — and the networks want the Lakers to make the playoffs. LeBron vs. the Warriors in the first round would be quite marketable.
10. Houston: The Rockets have a tough schedule but figure to be able to weather it, since they're starting to get more healthy.
11. Dallas: The Mavericks wouldn't mind going to the playoffs — their first-round pick is headed to Atlanta — but are still building for the future.
12. Oklahoma City: The Thunder would like to catch the Nuggets for second place, but that's most of the OKC drama as it pertains to the standings.
13. Golden State: The regular season seems completely irrelevant to the Warriors.
14. Denver: Tough schedule for the Nuggets, who are unlikely to catch Golden State. So holding off the Thunder for second is the mission.
15. Minnesota: You'd think the Timberwolves would make a run at the playoffs. But they are four back of the Clippers, three back of the Kings and one back of the Lakers. Minnesota just doesn't seem consistent enough to get anything accomplished, especially with a brutal schedule.
So considering the schedule, my prediction for the Western Conference finish is:
1. Golden State
2. Denver
3. Oklahoma City
4. Houston
5. Utah
6. San Antonio
7. Portland
8. Sacramento
9. LA Lakers
10. LA Clippers
11. Minnesota
12. Dallas
13. New Orleans
14. Memphis
15. Phoenix