CAN OFFENSE REBOUND?
The Thunder will look to get its offense back on track in the final 10 games
The Thunder trailed by 10 early to the Warriors as Russell Westbrook dribbled into a halfcourt set. That Westbrook and Paul George eventually crossed into each other's path, derailing the possession, wasn't the problem. It was something larger, an issue more Thunder opponents are showing in what's becoming a season disappointingly similar to last.
Never mind Westbrook is taking five seconds to get over halfcourt, and another three to get into a set, or settling into an 18-foot jump shot with 12 seconds on the shot clock.
“One of the main things is just executing and pace,” Thunder center Steven Adams
said this week. “Once we keep the pace up and going, keep our speed up, that's usually when we're at our best.”
Never mind the pace, too. On the play, Klay Thompson went under Adams' screen, not even bothering to contest Westbrook's attempt.
Even dating back to the Scott Brooks Era, the Thunder's offense has never been a complex equation, but it's performing at a league-low level since the All-Star break. What's changed and how does the Thunder fix it in the final 10 games?
In the 15 games since the All-Star break, the Thunder's defense hasn't been at its elite early season level, but it's been above average, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions, ninth in the NBA in that span.
The problem is the Thunder is scoring just 104.6 points per 100 possessions since Feb. 22, last in the NBA.
Missing George three games due to right shoulder soreness and Westbrook another game due to a suspension doesn't help the Thunder's offensive numbers. To be 30th in the league since Feb. 22, however, says just as much about how teams have figured out how to defend the Thunder as it does about injuries or absences.
But the aforementioned possession is just one example of the lack of respect being given to Thunder players not named George. It's not solely a Westbrook problem.
While Westbrook's post-All-Star break stretch of efficient shooting hasn't correlated to across-the-board offensive success, Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson have fallen off a cliff.
George's answer to double teams and traps being deployed on him is correct: Find shooters. But Ferguson and Schroder are shooting 36.4 and 35.1 percent, respectively, since the All-Star break. Teams aren't bothering to close out hard to them, either, which presents more issues for the Thunder's most efficient scorer.
“Yeah, I think that's definitely happening,” coach Billy Donovan said after the Thunder's 123-114 loss Wednesday night to Toronto. “They were very, very aggressive with him, and he kept throwing the ball to our big guys, and our big guys were making the next pass and we were getting really, really good looks.”
George said: “I can beat my guy, but there's always just a guy there behind him just there waiting for my drive. A lot of times I'm forced to kick the ball out, forced to move it just because that's the right play.”
It isn't a coincidence that teams are selling out to stop George while giving the other perimeter options more freedom to fire. It's smart basketball. It's the Thunder's offense being deconstructed from its core.
“If they're going to run and trap him like that, or if they're going run and try to get the ball out of his hands, he's got to make the next best play,” Donovan said. “I thought for the most part he did that.”
The desperation to free George or Westbrook comes at a cost. Since the All-Star break, Adams has turned the ball over 16.4 times per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com, ninth-most in the league in that span. Some of those turnovers are offensive fouls via screen setting or fighting desperately for a missed shot, which has taken possessions away from a Donovan offense that has improved but still labors and stagnates often in the halfcourt.
When Donovan was asked about shooters sagging off Westbrook as much as 15 feet in an 0-of-7 performance from 3 against Golden State, Donovan turned the question to defense.
“I felt good about what we were trying to do and the intentions of our guys,” Donovan said. “When you play 82 games, you're not going to always shoot the ball at the rate you want to. What you have to do is, night in and night out, be able to lean on your defense.”
The Thunder defense hasn't been perfect, but the offense has been a wreck the last 15 games. Earlier in the season, the Thunder was creating good looks and missing. With George playing at an MVP level and Westbrook attacking defenses, the Thunder found a rhythm. Now, OKC's offense has regressed and has little time left to get back to a respectable level.