Economist to builders: It's all about the jobs
Homebuilders (and everyone else), Oklahoma's job growth is even more anemic than economist Ted C. Jones told us.
Jones, keynote speaker at the OK Building Summit & Expo, said Wednesday Jones that
Oklahoma came in seventh from the bottom among the states and the District of Oklahoma for job growth the past year ending in August, at 0.34%.
That's according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Before he got to his next speaking engagement, Thursday morning in Minneapolis, he had updated his slide presentation with fresh labor stats: By the end of September, Oklahoma had fallen further behind, to next to last, 0.18%, adding just 3,100 net new jobs.
Limited or not, growth was uneven across the state: 0.8% in Oklahoma City, 1.33% in Lawton, and down 0.22% in Tulsa.
But: The state's job situation isn't as bad as it sounds, nor is the national economy as bad as TV talking heads make it sound, said Jones, chief economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Co., based in Houston.
No state lost net jobs the past year.
And alleged prophets calling for losses — and a recession, sooner rather than later — are looking to the future cross-eyed.
First, some more of Jones' numbers.
They show that the economy, here and in the country as a whole, is startlingly average, considering the recession saber rattlers.
• U.S. job growth the past 12 months, according to the labor bureau: 1.4%. The average 12-month gain the past 10 years: 1.4%.
• The Tax Foundation places Oklahoma at No. 27 on its ranking of business-friendly states, "26 better and 23 worse," he said.
"We have a perfectly average economy," Jones said, with "more jobs than any time in history."
Oklahoma, of course, as usual, is out of step with the country when it comes to one important job sector.
Despite years and years of work to diversify the economy, and years now of more exploration and production requiring fewer and fewer people, the energy sector is still six times larger in Oklahoma than the national average — 3.1% of all jobs here, 0.5% out there.
Note: Oil-and-gas jobs do account for a smaller percentage of Oklahoma jobs than five years ago, when it was 3.8% — but five years ago, the boom was still on, multi-hole drilling platforms hadn't taken off, and expansion of operators' fortunes created more jobs from derrick to desk. No more.
On their own, energy jobs in the state declined 2.4% the past 12 months, not as a percentage of the total, but on their own merit (or lack thereof).
On the whole, though, employment stats can't get much better if 100% is the theoretical target; that is, if 0% is the theoretical goal for unemployment (theoretical because some breathing room is good for new ideas and ways of doing things, and as a cushion against inflation).
U.S. unemployment was 3.5% in September, a 50-year low. In Oklahoma, it was lower, 3.2%.
"We'll have recession, but not now," Jones said, pointing to two big clues, one in the job numbers, one in consumer spending.
• Jobs: Employment in the leisure and hospitality sector, which he called "the blood pressure test of the U.S. economy," was up 2.1% the past 12 months. That means people are still spending money for unnecessary things and experiences and they "feel good about the future" and are hopeful (something else you can't tell from TV news and much of social media).
• Consumer spending: Retail sales, which account for 68% of the economy, grew 4.36% the past 12 months ending in September. "Retail sales say no recession," Jones said.
Then there's this: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 61.5% of workers are confident if they lost their job they could find a new one.
And this: Because of federal tax cuts and reform, Jones said, 90% of Americans pay less in taxes, and in real estate alone, $80 billion more is spent each year.
Times aren't as good as they have been. The economy isn't as bad as so many in the national media say.
"It's not great," Jones said. "It's average."