Phillies might regret it if they go to salary arbitration with Realmuto
TPHILADELPHIA he time is going to come when the Phillies ask J.T. Realmuto for an answer.
A contract extension that will kick in at the start of the 2021 season will be on the table, and it's going to be for life-changing money even for a man who has already made life-changing money.
Whether he wins or loses his anticipated salary arbitration case with the Phillies, the Carl Albert High School graduate will make no less than $10 million in 2020, boosting his career earnings to more than $20 million.
Starting next season, however, Realmuto, with the well-deserved label of best catcher in baseball, figures to be making around $20 million per year over the next four or five seasons.
Here's the thing: The Phillies need Realmuto a lot more than he needs them, which is why it's mystifying that the team is apparently willing to go to salary arbitration with the two-time All-Star catcher over a difference of $2.4 million. Realmuto's agent, Jeff Berry, submitted a salary-arbitration figure of $12.4 million, while the Phillies filed at the aforementioned $10 million.
It's a well-known fact that the owners hate the salary-arbitration process and that the commissioner's office is a driving force behind setting the team parameters. If the Phillies are simply trying to stay within those parameters, it's a weak gamble that could alienate the player and his agent.
Realmuto said several times last season that he loved playing in Philadelphia and that he'd be willing to sign a contract extension before he reached free agency after the 2020 season. But now the Phillies have given him reason to pause.
One baseball source said he could not remember a player in his final year of arbitration eligibility going to a hearing and then resigning with that team as a free agent. The source also said the two sides have not talked about an extension since the end of last season.
Since then, the Phillies have actually given Realmuto another reason to be concerned about his future in Philadelphia. The catcher, who will turn 29 in two months, made it clear when he was with the Marlins that he wanted to be traded because he wanted a chance to win as he entered the prime years of his career.
The Phillies, of course, are not the Marlins. They are going to have one of the highest payrolls in baseball this season, while Miami remains at the bottom of that list. But the Phillies decided to remain under the payroll tax threshold this offseason despite some obvious needs they could have filled on the free-agent market.
Managing partner John Middleton might be willing to exceed the threshold if the team is contending at the trade deadline, but for now, the Phillies are in a wait-and-see mode.
Who could blame Realmuto and his agent if they wanted to wait and see how things played out this season before signing an extension? Sure he would risk losing some value if he suffers a long-term injury, but that's a risk a man who wants to win and already has made lifechanging money can probably afford to take.
The odds are in Realmuto's favor that some team is going to be willing to pay him what he wants, and if he waits for free agency, he also can pick the team he thinks has the best chance of winning. Maybe the Phillies will be the best fit at the end of the 2020 season. Maybe not.
Regardless, Realmuto is going to be the winner at the end of the process.
The biggest catcher contract in history in overall money and average annual value was signed by Minnesota's Joe Mauer at the start of the last decade. He made $184 million over eight years and was 28 when the $23-million-peryear deal kicked in at the start of the 2011 season.
The Twins lived to regret the deal because multiple concussions forced Mauer to become a first baseman/designated hitter whose power was gone by the 2014 season. Injuries are always a greater risk for catchers, although their work hazards have been reduced some by the removal of homeplate collisions.
Realmuto, in terms of age and performance, matches up well with Mauer at a similar age because he is better defensively and possesses more power, a tool valued even more now than it was a decade ago.
The Mauer deal is the one Berry could be and should be seeking for Realmuto.
Yasmani Grandal, who is two years older than Realmuto, was the most recent catcher to sign a big free-agent deal, receiving a four-year, $73 million contract from the Chicago White Sox in November. He, too, is a tremendous defensive talent with power.
The Phillies will no doubt want to pay Realmuto in the Grandal range, but the player clearly has the upper hand in these negotiations.
The Phillies have already invested quite a bit in terms of talent just to get Realmuto. In all likelihood, Sixto Sanchez is going to appear on a big league mound for the Marlins at some point this season after continuing his minor league dominance last season at the Double-A level. In Jorge Alfaro, the Marlins also received a big leagueready catcher who continued to show steady improvement during his first season in Miami.
It would be a disaster for the Phillies if those two developed into stars and Realmuto went elsewhere after two seasons in Philadelphia.