Tornado season may be very active
Every day that passes, the calendar draws nearer to spring—peak tornado season for much of the central and eastern United States. And atmospheric scientists have cast their predictions for tornado season 2020, calling for a near to slightly more active season than average. There are also signs that peak periods of storminess could ramp up earlier in the year than during some previous seasons.
Victor Gensini, a professor of atmospheric science sat Northern Illinois University, said he gently le ans toward an above average tornado season.
Genisini rose to prominence in the field of seasonal forecasts for severe weather in recent years, most recently predicting 2019 s record tornado onslaught nearly four weeks in advance. He specializes in determining how “teleconnections,” or the presence of distant and seemingly tangential atmospheric features, can have impacts on weather closer to home.
This year, he's forecasting bouts of severe weather to begin increasing in frequency and intensity during March and April. May looks to be a busy month as well.
“If the current patte rn doesn' t change significantly, we could be up for . . . periods of intense activity, foll owed by shutdowns,” he explained. Predicting exactly when those busy spurts will line up is a bit more challenging. “It's going to coincide with where we are in the sub— seasonal cycle.”
Gen si ni alludes to smaller—scale, shorter— duration atmospheric disturbances that can bolster or inhibit storminess over the Lower 48. In past years, there have been larger, more obvious ingredients in place. But not so much this year. The atmosphere will be a bit more fickle.
“Last year it was very obvious when the stars would align,” said Gensini. “I think usually by March 1, things become pretty clear. Are there any sort of `big players?' I kind of think of ( t he atmosphere) as a big orchestra ... all the instruments playing together in an ensemble. Some years, you have some instruments playing louder than the others and controlling the narrative and the tune.”