Virus, stalled economy raise Democratic hopes to take Senate
WASHINGTON — Steve Bullock was the lame-duck governor of solidly red Montana, fresh off a failed Democratic presidential bid, when he pivoted and announced he'd challenge Republican Sen. Steve Daines for his seat.
Days after announcing his candidacy last month, the first coronavirus cases appeared in Montana. That shifted the spotlight onto Bullock as he leads the state' s pandemic response, leaving Daines in the unusual position of a sitting senator competing for attention.
“I look forward to when I can spend more time thinking about the campaign and doing that work,” Bullock said last week. Right now, he said, he's making sure “lives are being saved.”
The coronavirus, the resulting economic shutdown and President Donald Trump's stumbles addressing the crises have abruptly scrambled this fall's battle for Senate control. Democrats have rising hopes of gaining the minimum three seats they' ll need to capture a majority, while Republicans who once banked on a robust economy and improving Trump approval ratings are showing signs of nervousness.
Old GOP assumptions about the political climate “are totally upside-down,” said longtime GOP pollster Neil Newhouse. “Republicans have to be prepared for an all-out battle, and it's going to be a challenge.”
Although a lot can change by Election Day, favorable signs for Democrats are evident.
Self-described democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., ceded the Democratic presidential nomination to former Vice President Joe Biden, a relief to moderate Democratic candidates everywhere.
Democrats outraised Republicans in nine of 12 higher-profile Senate races in this year's first quarter. Besides Bullock outperforming Daines, Democratic challengers raised more than GOP Sens. Martha McSally of Arizona, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
Even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham raised less than long shot Democratic opponents.
Underscoring the direction the political arrow now points, two major GOP committees reserved $100 million for autumn ads in eight states. The spending by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund is entirely for defending GOP incumbents except for in Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters faces well-funded GOP businessman John James.
Polls this month indicate the potential peril for GOP candidates. Fewer than 1 in 4 surveyed said they highly trust what Trump says about the outbreak, an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey showed. Trump's favorable rating tumbled to 43% in amid-April Gallup poll, down from 49% two weeks earlier.
A recent Republican National Committee survey of 17 battleground states showed significantly eroded support for Trump since the virus outbreak, a warning for GOP Senate candidates. The Republican senatorial committee sent candidates a 57-page memo by O'Donnell & Associates, a strategic communications firm, urging them to blame China for the pandemic and advising ,“Don' t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban — attack China.”
“More and more are signs the voters are looking for change, they're looking for greater stability,” said J.B. Poersch, who runs the Senate Majority PAC, an outside ally to Democratic leadership.
Illustrating one Republican's approach to Trump, Collins said it's “not helpful” when he speculates about the virus. Trump mused the next day about injecting disinfectants as a treatment, which doctors warned could kill.
Asked about Trump, Collins noted she didn't back him in 2016, when she's said she wrote in a vote for then-House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis. “I'll work with whomever is elected president,” she said during an Instagram live event hosted by Colby College.
Happily for Republicans, their candidates have accumulated more cash than their Democratic challengers in most of the Senate's closest races. With indications the economy's revival may limp along, fundraising could be tough all year, helping those already boasting formidable bank accounts.
Both sides' advisers say stay-at-home orders shackling most Americans' movements generally disadvantage challengers, ominously for Democrats who must oust more incumbents to prevail.
Indefinitely eliminated are attention- grabbing public events and bigdollar fundraisers, forcing a reliance on virtual town halls and money-raising events. Senators usually attract more attention than challengers and have better established fundraising networks.