Spike in US pneumonia cases suggests greater COVID-19 impact

Federal data released this week shows that the number of deaths recorded in the U. S. this year is higher than normal, outpacing deaths attributed to COVID-19 in states that have been hit hardest by the virus.

The data provides the first look at death trends this year across the country and offers more evidence that the official tally of coronavirus deaths is low.

The phenomenon is pronounced in states with some of the worst COVID- 19 outbreaks. From March 22 to April 11, New York saw 14,403 more deaths than the average of the previous six years, according to data maintained by the National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. New Jersey saw an additional 4,439 deaths and Michigan an additional 1,572.

The “excess deaths” surpassed COVID- 19 fatalities in those states by a combined 4,563 people. Experts suspect that unconfirmed coronavirus cases could be responsible for some of those deaths, but it might also be related to a shift in other causes of death. For example, some doctors speculate people might be dying from illnesses from which they would normally recover because the pandemic has changed access to health care.

“When we begin to look at it retrospectively, it's going to help discern, or maybe develop a more accurate estimate of what the true number of deaths might have been from COVID- 19,” said Dr. Matthew Boulton, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Public Health who also serves as Editor- inChief for the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

It's more difficult to gauge how much of a factor the missing COVID-19 deaths could be when looking at the entire country.

Over those same three weeks, at least 171,587 people died nationwide – 16,785 deaths more than the historical average. But that number is lower than the 23,460 COVID- 19 deaths reported during the same time period, in part because 28 states have so far reported fewer deaths than average. That might mean fewer people have died there than is typical, or it might just mean the states haven't finished reporting deaths to the CDC, a process that can take up to two months. ( Two states – North Carolina and Connecticut – reported zero deaths for some weeks and were excluded from USA TODAY's calculations.)

Death numbers for March and April are expected to increase because most states are still compiling figures. It will take months or years more before researchers know with certainty how many people actually died from COVID- 19. Scientists say that delay is common for any infectious disease and more so for new pathogens like the novel coronavirus.