Oklahoma among 18 COVID-19 `red zone' states

Editor' s note: This story about the coronavirus red zone was originally published by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit newsroom based in Washington, D.C.

A document prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force but not publicized suggests more than a dozen states should revert to more stringent protective measures, limiting social gatherings to 10 people or fewer, closing bars and gyms and asking residents to wear masks at all times.

Oklahoma is listed among the 18 states.

The document, dated July 14 and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, says 18 states are in the “red zone” for COVID-19 cases, meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week. Eleven states are in the “red zone” for test positivity, meaning more than 10% of diagnostic test results came back positive.

It includes county-level data and reflects the insistence of the Trump administration that states and counties should take the lead in responding to the coronavirus. The document has been shared within the federal government but does not appear to have been posted publicly.

Dr. Ashish Jha, director of t he Harvard Global Health Institute, said he thought the information and recommendations were mostly good.

“The fact that it's not public makes no sense to me,” Jha said Thursday .“Why are we hiding this information from the American people? This should be published and updated every day.”

In its summary on Oklahoma, the report says:

•The state is in the red zone for cases, indicating more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week, and the yellow zone for test positivity, indicating a rate between 5% to 10%.

•Oklahoma has seen an increase in new cases and an increase in testing positivity over the past week.

•The following counties had the highest number of new cases over t he past three weeks: Tulsa County, Oklahoma County and Cleveland County. Those three counties rep resent 61.9% of new cases in Oklahoma.

• Oklahoma had 102 new cases per 100,000 population in the past week, compared to a national average of 119 per 100,000.

Dr. Deborah Birx, a leader of the task force, referenced an earlier version of what appears to be the same report — which she said is updated weekly and sent to governors — in a news conference July 8 in which Vice President Mike Pence urged local leaders to open schools in the fall.

She said Arizona, California, Florida and Texas were among the states the task force was monitoring carefully and that “a series of other states” were also in the red zone and should consider limiting gatherings.

It's clear some states are not following the task force's advice. For instance, the document recommends that Georgia, in the red zone for both cases and test positivity, “mandate statewide wearing of cloth face coverings outside the home.” But Gov. Brian Kemp signed an order Wednesday banning localities from requiring masks.

The 18 states that are included in the red zone for cases in the document are: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

The 11 states that are in the red zone for test positivity are Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas and Washington.

In May, the World Health Organization recommended that governments make sure test positivity rates were at 5% or lower for 14 days before reopening. A COVID19 tracker from Johns Hopkins University shows that 33 states were above that recommended positivity as of July 16.

“If the test positivity rate is above 10%, that means we're not doing a good job mitigating the outbreak,” said Jessica Malaty Rivera, science communication lead at the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer organization launched by journalists from The Atlantic. “Ideally we want the test positivity rate to be below 3%, because that shows that we're suppressing COVID-19.”

The White House and Kemp did not respond to requests for comment Thursday.