Big stakes in bid for Senate control
Arecent comment by former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid underscores one reason why the fight for the White House is just one political prize this year.
“The filibuster is gone,” Reid, D-Nev., told Politico. “… Next year at this time it will be gone.”
Getting rid of the filibuster rule, which benefits the minority party because it allows a bill or nomination to be held up unless it gets 60 votes to move it along, is one of many Democratic wishlist items if the party wins control of the Senate, something that certainly appears possible with two months until Election Day.
Republicans hold a slim 53-47 majority. To take control, Democrats must flip four seats if Donald Trump wins re-election, but only three if Joe Biden wins the presidency because the vice president holds the tiebreaking vote.
Republicans expect to defeat Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama and thus win back a seat they formerly held, but the GOP is defending several competitive seats that could well go to Democrats.
For example, Maine's Susan Collins trails by 4.5 points in her race, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. In Arizona, Martha McSally trails her challenger by 11 points. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., is behind by 4.5 points and the gap is growing.
In Iowa, Joni Ernst trails by less than half a point. Cory Gardner's race in Colorado is considered a toss-up by RCP. In Georgia, the race to complete the term of Johnny Isakson, who resigned last year, “leans GOP.” The race in Minnesota involving Democratic incumbent Tina Smith is regarded as a toss-up.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who is in a tough race of his own, used the Republican National Convention to stress that retaining the Senate would serve as a “firewall” against the agenda of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The agenda is far more progressive than even four years ago, when Barack Obama left office. Obama, interestingly, defended the filibuster when he was part of the Democratic minority in the Senate, but now is among those calling for its demise.
The Wall Street Journal touched on some of the changes that could be coming without the filibuster:
“Democrats can pass a tax increase with a mere 51 votes under current budget rules, but killing the filibuster opens the door to all sorts of long dormant progressive priorities.
“That includes statehood, plus two Senate seats each, for Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. House Democrats have passed the most far-reaching labor legislation in decades. Right-to-work laws could be banned in the states and secret union elections replaced with `card check' that allows open pressure on workers.
“… Democrats could also expand the size of the federal appellate courts and even the Supreme Court with a mere 51 votes.”
The presidency is always the headliner event in an election year. This year, however, Senate control is a close second.