Five biggest questions heading into the offseason
The Thunder's season ended Wednesday night with a series of turnovers in the final seconds of Game 7.
A makeshift roster that wasn't constructed to seriously compete embraced its underdog status and was one of nine teams remaining inside the Disney bubble.
“I think it's always hard when the season comes to an abrupt end,” coach Billy Donovan said. “These guys poured their heart and soul into the season… When you
talk about the word ` team,' that's what they developed into.”
Now that the Thunder's bubble has popped, it's time to look forward.
Here are five big questions heading into the offseason:
1. Will Billy Donovan be back?
Thunder general manager Sam Presti repeatedly said that contract negotiations with Donovan wouldn't start until the season ended.
“Nothing's changed with that,” Presti said in July. “We've always been ones to kind of take care of the things that are in front of us. Then when we get to the end of the year, we'll sit down and figure out what's best for him, what's best for us.”
The end is here, and Donovan's contract is up.
There are two ways of looking at the situation: Does the Thunder want Donovan to return? Does Donovan want to return to the Thunder?
The answer to the first question seems to be yes. Presti lobbied for Donovan to win Coach of the Year, which Donovan finished third for, and Presti praised Donovan for how he made the pieces fit this season.
It was Donovan's most impressive job in five seasons as coach. The Thunder had a better winning percentage this year than each of the last four years. Donovan's only better team than this one, by winning percentage, was the 2015-16 team that made it to the Western Conference Finals behind Kevin Durant and
Russell Westbrook.
It's fair to question the Thunder's late-game execution Wednesday against the Rockets, and why Donovan never turned to his small-ball lineup that had been so successful in the series, but Donovan's future won't hinge on the Game 7 result.
“I was really, really honored and privileged to coach such an incredible group,” Donovan said. “Obviously I think those words sometimes ring hollow now because it's emotional after a tough loss in a long series, but coming down to the bubble together, I felt like they all supported each other, helped each other, and they were a team. We were a team.”
What the team looks like next season, and for the next few seasons, might determine Donovan's future. Even if the Thunder wants him back, will he want to lead a rebuild?
Donovan is 243-157 in five seasons with the Thunder. He's coached in 41 playoff games.
There are openings in Chicago, Indiana, New Orleans and Philadelphia, but the most likely option is that Donovan remains in Oklahoma City.
At this point, it might just be a matter of money. It's not the easiest time for a coach to be renegotiating his contract.
2. What about Chris Paul?
In a video he posted Thursday afternoon, Chris Paul thanked Thunder fans, and he also addressed the uncertainty of his future with the franchise.
“I just want to say a huge, huge thank you to Oklahoma City, the fans, everybody for the way that you guys welcomed me back with open arms after starting my first two years in the city,” Paul said. “To the team, to Sam Presti, Billy Donovan, the training staff, everybody man … obviously a lot of people counted us out, counted me out, and all I can say is, I'll never forget it.
“Sam, you was straightforward with me from Day 1. I don't know what the future holds, but what I can say is that this team, I think I made some connections and bonds with these guys that will last a lifetime.
“I hate that it ended as early as it did, but Oklahoma City will always have a special place in my heart.”
Paul's message certainly sounded like a goodbye, but he's under contract for $41.4 million next season, and has a player option that he'll surely pick up for $44.2 million in 2021-22.
The Thunder isn't likely to attach any draft picks to get Paul's contracts off the books, especially after the season he had. And OKC won't be in a rush to move him unless the right deal comes along.
Paul's contract is still difficult to trade as he heads into his age 35 season, but Paul stayed healthy this season and had one of the most efficient years of his career.
He averaged 17.6 points, 6.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game.
Philadelphia and New York are potential suitors for Paul, and others will emerge.
The 76ers have big contracts in Tobias Harris and Al Horford to make the money work, and the Knicks naturally make sense given the Leon Rose connection. Rose, Paul's former agent, was named president of the Knicks in March.
3. Who else could be on their way out?
Presti will no doubt position the Thunder below the luxury tax threshold next season, wherever it's set amid the uncertainty of the pandemic.
The Thunder has $35 million ready to come off the books in the expiring contracts of Danilo Gallinari ($22.6 million), Andre Roberson ($10.7 million) and Nerlens Noel ($2 million).
Abdel Nader, Hamidou Diallo and Deonte Burton all have team options the Thunder can pick up or decline. Nader and Diallo were rotational players in the regular season. Burton played limited minutes in 39 games.
Gallinari's situation is most interesting. The 32-year-old forward averaged 18.7 points and 5.2 rebounds in his first season with the Thunder. He was the team's best 3-point shooter at 41%.
ESPN's Bobby Marks floated a possible two-year, $32 million contract for Gallinari.
The Thunder, after discussing Gallinari with the Heat at the trade deadline, could also try to work a sign-and-trade with somebody.
If Paul remains, maybe the Thunder runs it back next season with Gallinari and the other veterans on the roster. If not, Darius Bazley could start at power forward after a breakout performance in the bubble.
4. What about the rebuild?
Presti outlined his reposition, replenish and rebuild plan last summer.
The Thunder, with Paul still on the roster, has yet to enter the rebuilding stage. But it's likely still to come.
The present focus, especially with the pandemic, is to replenish financially. The Thunder fielded one of the five most expensive teams three out of the last four seasons, and it has repeatedly paid the luxury tax.
Re- signing a player like Gallinari might prove too costly.
Steven Adams and Dennis Schröder will make $27.5 million and $ 15.5 million next season. Both will be playing on expiring contracts and could be trade candidates.
The Thunder's salary sheet clears up in 2021-22, and that's when things could look vastly different.
Paul will be in the final year of his contract, and Bazley, Shai Gilgeous- Alexander, Luguentz Dort and Isaiah Roby are the only other players signed through then — all on cheap contracts.
5. When do those draft picks kick in?
The Thunder's first-round pick for the upcoming draft — tentatively scheduled for Oct. 16 — belongs to the 76ers as the result of it falling outside the top-20.
OKC will have Denver's firstround pick (25th overall) and its own second-round pick (53rd overall).
The Thunder own 13 firstround picks over the next seven years, with two each in 2021 and 2023 and three each in 2024 and 2026.
The Thunder owns unprotected first-round picks from the Clippers in 2022, 2024 and 2026 as a result of the Paul George trade.
The 2024 and 2026 firstround picks from the Rockets are top-four protected.
How long will George and Kawhi Leonard stay in Los Angeles? Will Russell Westbrook and James Harden still be in Houston?
Even if they are, all four of them will be in their mid to late 30s when those 2026 picks roll in.