UNCERTAIN FORECAST
Sure seems like the Thunder wants Billy Donovan to continue as its coach, but does he?
The Thunder seems interested in keeping Billy Donovan as its coach.
After a season in which he led a team given almost no chance of making the playoffs to within a few seconds of knocking the Rockets out of them, securing Donovan's services would seem a priority for OKC.
When will it get done? How much money can the team offer? How many years will be on the contract?
Good questions, all. But here's one that has to be answered first: does Donovan want to stay?
At a time pandemicfueled revenue drops may force the Thunder to start that rebuild Sam Presti warned about a year ago, Donovan may want to know a little more about the future of the roster
before deciding about the future of his employment.
Before we dive into that, it's important to remember neither the Thunder nor Donovan have given any indication they want to sever ties.
Presti heaped praise on Donovan earlier this summer, even though the Thunder general manager surely ceded some contract-negotiating power by doing so. But it's hard not to like what Donovan did this season despite losing
two superstars, having nine new players and facing serious uncertainty. Was he perfect?
Of course not.
The last thing we saw out of this team — an inbounds play so bad that kids on the playground might as well have drawn it up — is evidence of Donovan's fallibility.
One play, of course, does not define his body of work. Not this season. Not over the past five seasons.
Donovan seems a good fit with the Thunder. He meshes with the culture of the franchise and squares with the vision of his bosses.
And there's every indication he appreciates that and likes working for the Thunder, likes being in Oklahoma City.
But this offseason may change dramatically — again — the immediate future of this franchise. The coronavirus pandemic has left serious holes in the revenues of every team in pro sports, including the Thunder. There's no way the franchise is willing to be in the luxury tax again next season.
So, can it afford to resign Danilo Gallinari, who made $22.6 million this season? Or can it afford to keep Chris Paul, who is slated to make $41.4 million next season, or even Steven Adams, who is set to make $27.5 million?
Gallinari is an unrestricted free agent, Paul is under contract for two more seasons, and Adams is entering the final season
of his contract. Presti isn't going to let go of Paul or Adams for nothing.
The Thunder would have to get young players or draft picks before ever agreeing to part with either of them.
But if some combination of Gallinari, Paul and Adams are gone next season, wins may be really hard to come by. Even though the young core building around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks better after the way Lu Dort and Darius Bazley played in the bubble, does anyone really want to think about the Thunder trying to navigate through the Western Conference next season without Paul, Adams and Gallinari? Fans don't want to. I guarantee Billy Donovan doesn't want to.
There's a good chance roster decisions won't be final before Donovan has to decide what he wants to do, but he will want to hear Presti's expectations first. What will the finances allow? What will the plan be?
Whatever the answers, whatever the roster, Donovan will also have to decide if he wants to coach it for less money. Teams don't have as much money to spend on anything, and that includes coaches' salaries.
It's dumb luck for Donovan that he's negotiating a new contract at this point, but the reality is, he won't be making $6 million a year, his widely reported salary, if he signs a new deal with the Thunder.
For what it's worth, Donovan may well have done his best coaching job this season even though this was his least-experienced team.
Being a long-time college coach, he is adept at teaching and molding young players.
But even at that, he may not want to put up with the losses and the struggles that might come with a rebuild. He's 55 years old. Maybe he'd rather spent time around family or take up a hobby or travel the world.
If he planned well, he likely has the resources to do that.
So, this brings us back around to the big question: will Donovan be back on the Thunder sideline?
My gut says yes, but we'll have to wait and see what Billy Donovan says.