Losing Verlander is massive blow to Astros' future
The storm shutters were placed on the Houston Astros' championship window Saturday, leaving this proud franchise wondering how it can not only win this year, but anytime soon.
It was hit with the gutwrenching news that future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander will be undergoing Tommy John surgery, not only missing the rest of this season, but also all of 2021. He may have thrown his last pitch for the organization considering he'll be a 39-year-old free agent when he returns.
“It's impossible to say that on some level it does not shrink the window,'' Astros GM James Click said on a video call. “No team can lose Justin Verlander and not look at themselves in the mirror and say honestly that doesn't hurt your chances of winning a championship.
“But at the same time, this is an opportunity for this roster and this organization to step up and show that we have the talent here.''
This is a team, after being publicly disgraced in the wake of the cheating scandal that was exposed in February, that has been mired in mediocrity all season, 27-26 after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday.
This is the first time in four years the Astros won't win the AL West, hopelessly behind the Oakland Athletics. If they're not careful, they could miss the postseason entirely, with a three-game lead over the Seattle Mariners for second place in the AL West and an automatic berth in the 16-team expanded postseason.
They had lost 11 of their last 15 games entering Saturday, scoring 3.7 runs a game this month, and just when it looked like Verlander would be returning, along comes the news that the defending American League Cy Young winner won't be around to save them.
“Emotionally, it's difficult, because we were hoping he could come back,” Click said. “The shot in arm you get when you have a guy like that come in at the end of the season, and be ready to go to the playoffs, just cannot be replicated. So, we are going to have to generate that emotion internally. We're going to have to generate that fire and that competition and that competitive spirit without that boost.''
In the words of All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa: “It definitely sucks not having our ace moving forward. …The news obviously hit hard.''
Verlander, who had not pitched since Opening Day, when he was diagnosed with a flexor mass in his right forearm, truly believed he'd be back. He worked fervently the past two months, and had even discussed a plan in which he'd make his return Monday in Seattle against the Mariners.
Then along came a 75-pitch simulated game Wednesday, the pain he woke up with the next day, the MRIs, the medical opinions, and he knew the comeback was over.
“After consulting with several of the best doctors, it has become clear that I need Tommy John surgery,” Verlander wrote on his Instagram account Saturday. “I was hopeful that I would be able to return to competition in 2020; however, during my simulated game, unfortunately the injury worsened. Obviously, I'm extremely disappointed, but I will not let this slow down my aspirations for my career.
“I will approach this rehab the only way I know, attack and don't look back. I'm confident that with a proper rehabilitation program and my unwavering commitment that this surgery will ultimately lengthen my career as opposed to shorten it. I can't thank my teammates, coaches, the front office and my fans enough for the support they have given me so far in this process. I'm eager to get through this recovery and back on the field to continue to do what I love.”
Simply, Verlander isn't ready to call it a career. He has pitched too long, too historically well, to give up now.
“I have no doubt that Justin Verlander will go after his rehab with the same competitive spirit that he goes after everything else,” Click said. “He is adamant that he's in tremendous physical shape, and he talked about how he didn't put himself in that shape to have this thing derail his career. So, he's going to get after this rehab as hard as anybody.''
And if he returns, who knows if it will be with Houston? He'll earn $33 million in 2021 and then hit the free-agent market having thrown 73 pitches in 24 months.
“Tough year for him, but my prediction is that he will be back,” Astros owner Jim Crane told USA TODAY Sports.
Says Astros manager Dusty Baker: “I always told him he's a medical marvel; I know how hard he works. He'll be pitching for years to come.''
Still, the fact that Verlander will be gone next year, too, may force the Astros into making difficult decisions. They have only two veteran starters in Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr., and a bullpen filled with rookies. All-Star outfielders George Springer and Michael Brantley are free agents this winter, along with slugger Yuli Gurriel and outfielder Josh Reddick. Closer Roberto Osuna, who has been sidelined since Aug. 1 with an elbow injury, likely will be non-tendered. And in a year, Correa will be joining Greinke and McCullers as free agents.
There won't be decisions made immediately this winter, but with massive financial losses this season, the Astros aren't expected to be huge spenders in this year's free-agent market. Who knows — they could even be sellers, resetting their future.
Certainly, it worked before, with the Astros losing 324 games in a threeyear span only to become a juggernaut, with a World Series championship, two American League pennants and trips to four postseasons in the past five years.
They may have no choice but to try it again.
“It makes the offseason that much more challenging,'' Click said. “We have a talented group here. We'll figure it out and put this team into position to be competitive next year.''
But as far as being a World Series contender again anytime soon, well, that may be a different story.
“You can't replace Justin Verlander,'' Click said. “Not one person can replace Justin Verlander. It's got to be a total team effort.”