VP debate: The prosecutor vs. the `king of sound bites'
Why the Harris-Pence debate is no ordinary VP faceoff
California state Sen. Toni Atkins was going to ask Kamala Harris about her upcoming debate with Vice President Mike Pence when Harris animatedly interrupted.
“Let me just say something. He's a good debater,” Harris said during a virtual fundraiser last month. “So, I'm so concerned, like I can only disappoint.”
Harris' assessment of Pence is echoed by Democrats and Republicans alike who know the vice president and understand the skills Pence brings as a former radio talk show host and the Trump administration's most disciplined messenger.
Harris can rely on her prosecutorial skills – which have made more than one Republican squirm under her grilling at congressional hearings – and her wattage as a rising star in the Democratic Party and first woman of color on a major party's presidential ticket.
Her gender brings an extra element of interest because of the Trump campaign's struggles with female voters and because of the criticism Pence has received from the left for his practice of avoiding being alone with a woman other than his wife.
Even before President Donald Trump's hospitalization for COVID-19 increased the stakes in the vice presidential debate, it was already expected to draw more attention than Pence's 2016 contest against Sen. Tim Kaine – a match that Republican strategist Michael Steel dub bed“Mayonnaise versus Miracle Whip.”
“I think that the debates that are most interesting are the ones where you have a pretty striking contrast between the candidates,” said Alan Schroeder, a presidential debate historian and author of the book “Presidential Debates: Risky Business on the Campaign Trail.
In addition, older candidates can put more of a spotlight on younger running mates. Trump's illness, and the pandemic in general, only increases the possibility that Trump, 74, or Joe Biden, 77, might not be able to finish a term. (Pence is 61 and Harris is 55.)
“There's a greater than normal possibility that one of the candidates in the VP debate will be president of the United States,” said Steel, who helped Paul Ryan prepare for the 2012 vice presidential debate.
Trump' s diagnosis adds to the questions that were already raised about whether there will be additional presidential debates. After the first debate devolved into a slugfest, the Commission on Presidential Debates said it's considering changes to ensure “a more orderly discussion of the issues.” Trump has not said whether he will participate if the rules are changed. If he doesn't, Wednesday could be the final faceoff between the campaigns.
`Temperature-lowering debate'
Voters may also view the vice presidential contest as a better chance to understand the issues.
“Mike Pence is as smooth as Trump is crude ,” Democratic strategist David Axelrod said on his podcast. “He'll probably give the performance that Trump's handlers wished that he had given something like.”
A Republican close to Pence and the debate prep process said he expects the 90-minutes to be a “temperature-lowering debate” in which both candidates will want to talk about policy and what the next four years would look like.
It's not unusual that a vice presidential candidate has the task of cleaning up after a presidential debate.
After President Barack Obama's weak first debate against Mitt Romney in 2012, one of Biden's missions was to put the campaign on a course correction, Schroeder said.
But Pence, he added, “has got a very tough job to do here.”
In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll taken after the presidential debate, 49% of registered voters thought Biden did better than Trump while only 24% thought Trump was the winner. The poll also showed Biden's lead over Trump had grown to 14 points.
“It puts a little bit of pressure on Pence to try and sort of breath some life back into a campaign that was behind beforehand,” said vice presidential expert scholar Joel Goldstein, an emeritus professor of St. Louis University.
High expectations for Harris
Harris faces her own pressures.
While Pence has been through a vice presidential debate, this is a first for Harris. She also hasn't debated a Republican since her 2010 race for California attorney general. The tough questioning she's known for at Senate hearings and jabs she delivered during the 2019 Democratic presidential primary debates came under different dynamics than what she will face Wednesday before a viewership of tens of millions.
“I can' t stress how strongly I would say that doing a one-on-one debate in a general election is a much higher challenge than participating in primary debates with multiple candidates,” said Robert Barnett, the Washington lawyer who has prepared many Democrats for presidential and vice presidential debates, including portraying Pence in Kaine's 2016 debate prep. “The stakes are higher. The audience is bigger. The breadth of the issues is unlimited. And the cost of failure is enormous.”
Harris also faces high expectations. After Biden announced her as his running mate, a common reaction – especially on social media – was predictions of a slaughter.