Just-in-time scoots over for just-in-case

Let's see, just in case I'm stuck at home all the way through the holidays ...

Blue Diamond Almonds, Smokehouse, 40-ounce bag, check.

Duke's Original Recipe Smoked Shorty Sausages On-the-Go Twin Pack, five per pack, 4.4ounce bag, check.

Anna and Sarah Premium Mixed Nuts in Shell, 4-pound bag, check.

Chick O Stick Nuggets, Bite Size, 2-pound bag, check.

Check, check, check, check. Or rather: Click, click, click, click.

Is there nothing Amazon can't procure? And do they keep some of everything at that big place out on Council Road? Ordered Friday afternoon, it'll all be here by Saturday evening. (Don't judge. I'll show you our Shipt bills. We spend way, way, way more money at local stores than online. Way.)

They ought to call it Amazin'. And part of the credit goes, Amazonly, to the coronavirus pandemic.

Putting it technically, the emphasis on risk management and supply chain reliance has warehouse-distribution logistics reeling — reeling in, not unwinding — as the sector shifts from just-intime delivery to just-in-case, according to “Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2021,” the annual report on investment prospects by the Urban Land Institute and PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers).

It is worth a read. Download it from www. tinyurl.com/ETRE21.

Logistics trends already driven by innovation are zooming (that thing is everywhere, but a different subject. Or is it?)

“COVID-19 accelerated these structural drivers, which include e-commerce, speed-toconsumer supply chain strategies, and logistics users' adoption of

high-throughput modern logistics facilities” like Amazon's. “The pandemic emphasized the role of supply chains as a competitive advantage.”

There are winners and losers, as always.

“Retailers that were not prepared lost sales revenue opportunities. Prevalent stock-outs (running out of stock) highlighted the Achilles' heel of lean supply chain theory (`just-in-time' strategies). Risk management has come to the forefront of supply

chain strategies, with an emphasis on preparedness. This preparedness includes holding higher inventory, diversifying sales channels, and having optionality in production nodes — engendering `just-incase' strategies.”

Don't expect just-incase to go away even if COVID-19 does, or when and if a vaccine is developed and distributed — and those logistics are worked out.

“Logistics users' adoption of just-in-case

strategies seems poised to accelerate beyond COVID-19” as the industry turns to “carrying higher inventory levels to reduce the impact of supply chain disruptions,” according to “Emerging Trends.”

The coronavirus is a disruption spawning and accelerating trends that will keep on giving as long as people keep on spending online, and online spending is expected to increase by $125 billion to $150 billion in 2020 due to the

effects of COVID-19.

E-commerce retailers, whether or not full-time, “created a competitive edge for post-pandemic sales growth. ... Lean manufacturing theory generally perceives inventory as waste (and uses) a just-in-time model for optimized efficiency,” “Emerging Trends” says.

However, the report says, “as logistics customers increasingly recognize that their supply chain is the lifeblood of their revenue streams in

a time of potential serious disruption,” justin-case supply chain strategies are the wave of the future, possibly requiring some 400 million square feet of new space the next couple of years, according to Prologis Research.

And that will hold a lot of almonds, mixed nuts, snack sausages, and Chick O Stick Nuggets — just in case.