5th District flips again

Oklahoma's 5th District representative in Washington next year will once again be a Republican, the result of a solid campaign, considerable outside financial support and perhaps a little good luck.

State Sen. Stephanie Bice, R-Oklahoma City, defeated incumbent Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn by 4 percentage points Tuesday, ending Horn's tenure after one term. Horn had won the seat in 2018 by stunning two-term incumbent Rep. Steve Russell in a district that, although it changed shape through the years, had been held by Republicans since the mid-1970s.

Horn compiled a strong team, raised plenty of money and outworked Russell. Her victory made her an immediate target of the national GOP and other Republican groups, which spent heavily on Bice's behalf. The two candidates combined to spend the most ever for an Oklahoma House race.

After winning the Republican nomination by trumpeting her support for President Trump, Bice shifted the focus of the campaign to her support of the oil and gas industry — noting Horn's votes last year to ban drilling offshore and in a slice of Alaska — and on her opposition to deeply unpopular House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Horn focused on issues such as education and health care, her desire to find bipartisan solutions to problems, and on her willingness to oppose party leadership, as she did in voting against a federal $15 minimum wage and two Democratic coronavirus relief bills.

The 5th District comprises all of Seminole and Pottawatomie counties, and much of Oklahoma County. Bice, as expected, won by wide margins in the two rural counties, with Horn winning in Oklahoma County by about 2,400 votes out of the 267,000 cast — less than 1 percentage point.

In 2018, Horn had won Oklahoma County by nearly 5 points, with a margin of 9,900 votes out of 211,500 cast.

As was the case two years ago, Horn had an advantage with those who voted by mail or early in person. The edge this year was about 26,000 votes, up from 4,600 in 2018. What carried Bice to the 12,000-vote victory was her advantage of roughly 38,500 votes among those who cast ballots in person Tuesday, a day with heavy turnout in a district that is plurality Republican.

The result led Republican pollster Pat McFerron to note that if the ice storm that struck Oklahoma early last week had arrived a week later, “Kendra Horn's in Congress again."

Bice's victory means Oklahoma's delegation in Washington — five House members and two senators — is all-GOP once again. Bice will serve in the minority during her first term, as the House remains in Democratic control.

Horn was gracious in defeat, telling supporters the seat belongs to the people, not one party. Bice would do well to note that and to follow her predecessor's lead by staying connected — Horn has held 53 town halls in two years — and responsive to constituents of the purple 5th District.