Coronavirus infections higher than ever, but not COVID deaths
For months, epidemiologists have predicted a spike in COVID-19 cases as winter approaches. Now it appears those dark forecasts were all too accurate.
Coronavirus infections are rising across much of the United States, with the number of new daily cases nearing 200,000 for the past several days. That's about five times the number of new daily cases the U.S. was reporting as recently as September, according to the World Health Organization.
In California, the average number of new coronavirus cases has tripled in the last month alone. The virus is now infecting more Californians every day
than at any previous point in the COVID- 19 pandemic, according to a Times analysis.
While the federal government continues to take a relatively handsoff approach, state and local governments have
become more aggressive in hopes of bending the curve on new cases.
In response to growing case numbers, California imposed a statewide 10 p. m. curfew to keep people from gathering and drinking together late at night. New York City closed its public schools for in- person learning less than two months after they reopened. Even Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, a longtime opponent of mask mandates, imposed one last week after 50% of Iowans who were tested for the virus got a positive result.
But as infections spiraled to never-beforeseen heights, the number of COVID- 19 deaths per day has not followed suit.
In early April, the U.S. reported about 30,000 new infections and about 2,000 deaths per day, according to the WHO. That's about the same number of deaths that are being reported now — though daily new cases are more than six times higher.
What exactly is going on? The more coronavirus cases that are reported, the more COVID- 19 deaths we'd expect to see, right?
The answer is both yes and no, experts said.
The general consensus is that the number of deaths will eventually follow infections in their upward trajectory, but the ratio of deaths per infection will remain significantly lower than it was in the spring.
There are multiple reasons for this. Some may seem obvious; others, more surprising.
But before we go through them, just remember that if you were hoping that the virus was losing its bite, or that the drop in death rate is a reason to ignore safety protocols, experts say that is not the case.
“There is no evidence that this virus is becoming less lethal,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Reason 1: Increased testing
In the early days of the pandemic, coronavirus testing was available only to people who either had a known exposure to the virus or had symptoms of COVID-19. (Although even when those two criteria were met, it could be difficult to get a test.) That means a large percentage of people who were infected were not being counted, especially the “silent spreaders” who were asymptomatic and those who had only mild symptoms, Nuzzo said.