Here’s how Big 12 can forge a future without OU, Texas
How can the Big 12 forge a future without OU, Texas?
Oklahoma and Texas are leaving the Big 12.
So, where does that leave the conference?
News that would've been surprising a week ago but that became expected in recent days was made official Monday morning — OU and Texas gave notice to the Big 12 they would not extend their grant of rights when the league's current agreement expires in 2025. A few hours later, the conference issued a statement acknowledging as much.
"Although our eight members are disappointed with the decisions of these two institutions, we recognize that in
tercollegiate athletics is experiencing rapid change and will most likely look much different in 2025 than it does currently,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said in the statement. “The Big 12 Conference will continue to support our member institutions' efforts to graduate student-athletes and compete for Big 12 and NCAA championships.
"Like many others, we will use the next four years to fully assess what the landscape will look like in 2025 and beyond. The remaining eight institutions will work together in a collaborative manner to thoughtfully and strategically position the Big 12 Conference for continued success, both athletically and academically, long into the future."
For all those words, there aren't many specifics. I assume that's partially because the Big 12 doesn't have a lot of answers right now — the notion of the conference going forward without OU and Texas wasn't on anyone's radar this time last week — but even if conference leaders had more time to prepare and plan, answers would still be tough to come by.
What, after all, is the right thing to do?
What should the remaining schools do?
This is important in our neck of the woods, of course, because it will have a huge impact on Oklahoma State. The Cowboys zoom to the head of the class without the Sooners and the Longhorns. OSU has one of the most successful football programs in the country over the past 15 years, and with quality facilities and strong programs all across the athletic department, it has a leg up on the other seven schools.
What that ultimately means for OSU remains to be seen. Will it use that cache to find a soft landing spot in another conference? Or will it become a leader — maybe even the leader — in the Big 12?
That depends on whether the remaining eight institutions are as committed to working together as Bowlsby's statement makes it sound. I have no doubt the schools have said they are going to stick together, but I also have no doubt each of them is actively looking out for themselves, talking with other conferences, figuring out what happens if the whole thing falls apart.
But there are good reasons why the Big 12's remaining schools should want to make a go of it — and ways they could make it happen.
Prime among the reasons to stay together is the promise of an expanded College Football Playoff. If the Big 12 holds itself together, it would almost certainly get its champion in the expanded playoff virtually every year. Under the proposed expansion to a dozen teams, the six highest-ranked conference champions would get automatic bids.
If the Big 12 maintained its standing as a Power 5 league, an automatic bid would be, well, automatic, but even if the league fell back into the Group-of-5 range, it would be the strongest of that bunch.
Would expanding strengthen the Big 12? Would adding the likes of Houston and Cincinnati, BYU and Central Florida draw more TV viewers, satisfy the broadcast partners and solidify the league's standing?
You have to assume if there were schools that could've been added and enhanced the conference, the Big 12 would've already added them. It had that chance a decade ago when the conference teetered on the brink of implosion.
It had it again five years ago when it put out the all call for expansion applicants; in the end, the Big 12 said no thanks to adding anyone.
Then again, times are different now than they were in either of those instances. The Big 12 is looking at a future without OU and Texas. Maybe the Cougars, Bearcats and Golden Knights look like better options now.
Frankly, those schools might also look better to one of the Big 12's broadcast partners. The league has deals with ESPN and Fox, but while ESPN also has deals with the SEC and the ACC, which feature college football's biggest brands, Fox's other partners are the Big Ten and the Pac-12. Nothing wrong with Big Ten football, but Pac-12 football is on the struggle bus.
Fox might be interested in helping the Big 12 survive in order to bolster the network's portfolio.
The Big 12 might even be able to use its survival as leverage with Fox.
If the conference dissolves and its schools land in other leagues, the consolidation of top-self football programs into fewer conferences could drive up the cost of broadcast deals. That could make the money networks are paying for college football look more like the money they're anteing for the NFL.
The Big 12 staying together might keep the market from skyrocketing on the networks, and Fox might well want that outcome.
But will the Big 12 hang on? It certainly can. There are ways the conference can survive the gut punch of losing OU and Texas, locking arms and forging a future. There are lots of reasons all of that makes sense for OSU and Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas, TCU and West Virginia, Baylor and Texas Tech.
But will the schools stay together and be as committed to each other as they have vowed to be?
Of the answers that are tough to come by right now in the Big 12, that is toughest of all.
Jenni Carlson: Jenni can be reached at 405-475-4125 or jcarlson@oklahoman.com. Like her at facebook.com/ JenniCarlsonOK, follow her at twitter.com/jennicarlson_ok, and support her work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.