A good week for the return of OSU’s D-line
STILLWATER — Desperately in need of some positive vibes, Oklahoma State is back on the home field this week, with the always-energizing black-out of Boone Pickens Stadium for the 2:30 p.m. Saturday kickoff against Iowa State.
The Cyclones come in after picking up their first Big 12 win of the season, 31-14 over West Virginia.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, have had two rough weeks in the state of Kansas, getting outscored 85-16 overall.
Here’s a quick look at some key factors for the game in this week’s edition of Four Downs:
First Down: Matchup that Matters Iowa State running backs vs. OSU run defense
Iowa State averages just 105.6 rushing yards per game, without a single player averaging more than 50. OSU ranks 100th nationally in rush defense, giving up 174.7 yards per game. Perhaps this is a week when the Cowboys can get the run defense back on track, and force Cyclone quarterback Hunter Dekkers into some difficult situations in the passing game.
Second Down: Cowboy in the Crosshairs
Defensive end Collin Oliver
It seems likely that Trace Ford won’t play this week. Brock Martin has been playing through injuries for a few weeks. Tyler Lacy got banged up last week, though he’s likely to play. Still, Oliver — a freshman All-American last year and preseason All-Big 12 selection this year — hasn’t been the impact player he was a season ago.
Oliver has 18 tackles with 5.5 for loss and 3.0 sacks, plus a team-best 10 quarterback hurries. Yet he only played 21 snaps last week, and the Cowboys will need much more out of him on Saturday.
Third Down: Against the Spread Under 48.5
Yes, that’s a low number for an OSU game. Typically the over/under for the Cowboys has been in the 60s this season. But with Iowa State’s incredible defense and blah offense, plus the Cowboys’ offensive struggles of late, staying under the 48.5 number seems safe. These two teams have been on a lowscoring trend in recent years. They haven’t combined to score more than 48.5 points in this matchup since 2019.
Fourth Down: 1 Wild Prediction
OSU gets four quarterback sacks. No need for a uniform guess this week, since it’s a black-out. So let’s dive in on the need for an added pass rush. It wasn’t that long ago when predicting four sacks for the Cowboys was far from wild. But their struggles lately have raised questions about that talented defensive front that led the nation in sacks a year ago. OSU is now 78th nationally in sacks, averaging 2.0 per game.
Iowa State is in the bottom half of the Big 12 in fewest sacks allowed, giving up 2.11 per game, or 19 for the season. So it could be an opportunity for the Cowboys to attack.