Should Vasilije Micic play more without SGA on floor?
Amid a 13-6 start, the Oklahoma City Thunder has prompted questions. Maybe even a mailbag’s worth.
What’s worked? Why is your favorite player playing the way they are? What have you hoped to see?
With the first edition of his Thunder mailbag, The Oklahoman’s Thunder beat writer, Joel Lorenzi, will answer those questions. Or whatever else you throw at him.
To make future editions of the mailbag, email questions to jlorenzi@oklahoman.com or message him on Twitter @jxlorenzi.
@OKCobstinacy: If you could pick any non-starter C/PF for the Thunder to go out and acquire, who would it be and why? For me, it's either Kelly Olynyk or Isaiah Hartenstein.
There are too many things to consider when adding someone to this mix.
So, a few things to note before my list of possible additions: This obviously isn’t the move (or at least the only move) I think the Thunder would need to make to contend. I’m not sure that move can come at the deadline. I think you know that, otherwise you would’ve just asked something along the lines of what the Lauri Markkanen trade package looks like.
I hear the fans saying Oklahoma City is in its championship window. I also hear the development stuff. I think parts of each can be true. So long as the Thunder’s core is this good, its bench is this cheap and its assets are this heavy, it can be forceful. But dealing for a guy at the deadline — even if it is someone as good as Markkanen — won’t push a team largely without playoff experience to the NBA Finals this year (that’s a different conversation for another day).
Adding someone with less responsibility at the deadline can be interesting, though. If you’re asking me to add someone to this team, beware that I’m not Sam Presti. I also don’t know that, if the reserves are the team’s priority at the deadline, that this position is the top priority.
Nevertheless, here we go:
Kelly Olynyk
Good choice here, Obstinacy. Probably the best of the ones I surveyed. Olynyk just checks off so many boxes as a connective, glue guy of a big. He’s averaged 7.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and shot 47.1% from 3 on 1.8 attempts for the Jazz this year.
It goes without saying that Olynyk can stretch the floor. Teams really can’t sag off him or think twice the way they’ve done with Jaylin Williams at times. With his connective passing, he could play alongside a Jaylin Williams, a Kenrich Williams, and probably any random Williams you drum up.
He’s probably the most skilled (and creative) passer on this list. He’s been the ball handler in ball screens and dotted both roll men and corner shooters. He’s thrown lobs. He’s been a dribble handoff hub. He’d probably have to be next to another big man for defensive purposes, but he just makes sense in so many lineups and helps as a rebounder. He’s been good in transition, at the rim, and just overall in his role.
I can see a lineup like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-Cason Wallace-Jalen Williams-Kelly Olynyk-Chet Holmgren headbutting a zone. I can also see Olynyk helping blend some of the non-SGA, JDub-led lineups together when those groups are searching for some pop. Olynyk is just a useful passer and screener and can get some of those guys better looks, while also forcing defenders to, well, defend him.
As for your Hartenstein love, I get it. He’s energetic and an active offense rebounder. But my vision doesn’t really include non-shooters. If it did, he’d be up there.
Dario Saric
For an 11-seed Warriors team that has caught some tough breaks and hasn’t exactly been perfect, Saric has been a bright spot. After all, he was helpful to OKC after the deadline last season. This year, he’s averaging 10.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists and shooting 37.6 from deep on 4.3 attempts in 21.7 minutes.
Pretty similar to Olynyk here in that Saric will stretch the floor, and while he might not be the exact passer, he’s hardly looked out of place in Golden State’s lineups — which I imagine requires more precision than most teams in the league.
His rebounding is probably skewed by some of the guys he shares the floor with, which can be said for Olynyk but I think especially applies here. His shooting has come at real volume, which would help maintain OKC’s uber-efficient start.
Jalen Smith
Hear me out. This one requires a bit of a leap of faith. Smith’s 15.4 minutes per game for the Pacers isn’t the same sample as the previous two players, but he’s been interesting.
He’s averaged 10 points, 5.5 boards and knocked down 14 of his 21 3-pointers this season.
He’s not exactly a playmaker. He’s more of a stretch big and large body for Indiana to deploy. Those limitations mean he’s probably not the best candidate here. But it also feels like he hasn’t yet reached the destination where he’ll play as comfortably as possible.
Honorable mention:
Naz Reid
Reid would be insanely high on this list if I thought Minnesota would actually deal him away. Just doesn’t make a ton of sense for the West’s top seed, even if it does feel it can eventually separate its big men group. Reid’s a good shooter, smart player, is super creative and has obviously proved he can play with other good bigs.
@PepsiUnited: Why doesn't Vasilije Micic play? He is plus-11 per 100 without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor - clearly the best statistical option to go to among guards and yet he gets DNPs. What's the reasoning behind it?
I’m not sure how much room there is for him. He came to the NBA as a guard whose best traits were his shooting and added playmaking. But his passing hasn’t been overwhelming to the point Mark Daigneault should force him into certain scenarios.
Daigneault has staggered Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, so one of those guys is almost always running a unit as its primary initiator. Micic has seemingly been used at times to bridge the gap between a primary initiator and some sort of 3-and-D guy he shares the floor with.
At times it’s been Josh Giddey (who could be viewed as the secondary in those lineups) and Lu Dort. Other times it’s been JDub and Wallace, or JDub and Isaiah Joe. Micic is supposed to serve as the connective, secondary ball handler there. But it just hasn’t all been pretty.
Roll the tape so far and you’ll see a lot of contested 3s, some airballs, and some end-of-clock stuff that makes you wonder how he got in those positions. He doesn’t always generate the separation he should, whether that’s on drives or in the pick-and-roll.
According to Synergy, 51.9% of his possessions have come as a pick-androll ball handler. He’s generated 0.725 points per possession on those, which the site rates as “Below Average.” With every PNR he runs, he’s probably taking one from Jalen Williams. If he’s meant to be a spot up, then it probably minimizes his passing some. And in that case, I’m not sure why Wallace and Joe wouldn’t just play next to Williams.
This young team has panned out to be surprisingly deep, even while still claiming to be in its developmental stages. There might not be much room for Micic to find his role with this team specifically. He turns 30 in January, so he is who he is.
With a niche role and less room for error than most, I don’t know who he’d consistently play over.
@stetbanks: After a very small sample size from this year's rookie class, how many guys would you take ahead of Cason Wallace? Is there anyone that was drafted after him you would take ahead of him?
It’s tough, but we always have to keep perspective with prospects. A player that’s good now might not be in a couple seasons. One off to a slow start could be a stud a long time from now.
In some future filled with flying cars and androids like “iRobot,” Andre Jackson Jr. has an All-Star season and helps the Bucks realize greatness years into the Giannis and Dame pairing. Let’s say Year 6 for him, because that’s the kind of sense (or lack thereof ) that prospects make.
I’m not an oracle, so I can only tell you who makes sense to take over Wallace now. Victor Wembanyama, obviously. Charlotte remains unserious, but Brandon Miller, even without the overwhelming level of responsibility that top-two picks usually have, has still popped.
I like Jordan Hawkins, too. He’s pluggable anywhere as a movement shooter, it just wouldn’t make as much sense for OKC to choose him because it has Joe. Jaime Jacquez has been more useful on the ball to lift Miami’s scoring, but obviously OKC requires different things from Wallace.
Those are the players who I’d understand being drafted ahead of Wallace (Jacquez and Hawkins were not) . But with Wallace’s glove-like fit with OKC, I’m not sure any of them make as much sense in a Thunder draft except Wembanyama, who stands above everyone and anything — including fit.
@prodchar: What do you think pros and cons are of starting (Isaiah Joe) instead of Josh Giddey?
Let’s start with the obvious: Giddey hasn’t been great. No matter the reason, he hasn’t shot very well from anywhere for most of the season. He’s been even less effective against zone or when teams simply choose not to defend him closely.
But two aren’t exactly a seamless swap for one another, so I’m not sure I can put this argument into pros and cons. Instead, I’ll just make some points.
Starting games doesn’t mean nearly as much as closing games, as evidenced by the three minutes Giddey played in the second half of the win over Dallas on Saturday. With how well Joe has shot this season — 46% on 3-pointer attempts — it’s been easy to insert him any time OKC wants to keep a defense on its toes.
He’s been good coming off screens, in dribble handoffs scenarios, and while mostly average when putting the ball on the floor, he’s at least made that wrinkle an option.
But there are a couple reasons I don’t think Joe would start. Wallace should (and would) start before him. Mostly because I think there’s enough shotmaking in the starting unit to not need a movement shooter like Joe. Still the league’s most efficient 3-point shooter at 52.5%, Wallace would suffice on the wing in those lineups. His defense, whether that’s at the point of attack or wherever, only makes more sense of his spot as a starter.
But Joe’s presence is also just necessary in the non-SGA, pro-JDub lineups. Those units, especially the ones mostly full of reserves, need Joe’s gravity as a shooter to generate some offensive pop.