Holmgren running away in race for Rookie of the Year
The NBA Rookie of the Year race has a runaway leader through the first two months of the season. Just as we all predicted, right?
Sort of, only we got the wrong guy. It’s Chet Holmgren, not Victor Wembanyama, who’s lapping the field of freshmen as the calendar flips to 2024.
Holmgren has been the secondbest player — crazy isn’t it? — on a Thunder squad (19-9) that sits third in the West and leads the conference in point differential (+7.6) entering play Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Wembanyama’s Spurs are 4-25 with an NBA-worst point differential (-12.3). Yes, worse than the historically bad Pistons (-11.5).
That’s not really the point, though. Rookie of the Year winners often come from lousy teams.
Wembanyama’s stock has not dropped one iota. As a 19-year-old, the 7-foot-4 Frenchman leads the NBA with 3.0 blocks per game. And remember, he’s a year and a half younger than Holmgren, didn’t have a redshirt season like Holmgren, and is adjusting to a new country and culture unlike Holmgren, who grew up in Minneapolis.
But while Wembanyama’s bestplayer-in-the-galaxy ceiling has held steady, Holmgren has exceeded even the most bullish expectations. As a rookie who missed all of last season with a foot injury, Holmgren has immediately impacted winning outcomes for an upstart Thunder team. With Holmgren on the floor, the Thunder is outscoring teams by 9.9 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off the floor, the Thunder is only outscoring teams by 4.9 points per 100 possessions.
Chet Holmgren: 28 games, 29.9 minutes, 17.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.7 blocks, 53 FG%, 37.6 3FG%, 84.5 FT%
Victor Wembanyama: 26 games, 30.0 minutes, 18.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 3.0 blocks, 43.3 FG%, 27.8 3FG%, 77.1 FT%
I too would love to observe another universe in which Wembanyama and Holmgren switch places, but barring a scientific advancement we can only wonder.
Might Wembanyma be as good as Holmgren this season if Wembanyama was playing next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams rather than Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell? Would Holmgren’s 53% field goal and 38% 3-point percentages plummet to Wembanyama levels (43% and 28%) if Holmgren was playing for the hapless Spurs?
Either way, the counting stats of Holmgren and Wembanyama are close enough that Holmgren’s edges in efficiency and effect on winning give him the clear Rookie of the Year edge. Vegas agrees.
Holmgren is the overwhelming Rookie of the Year favorite, according to FanDuel, at -195. Wembanyama has the second-best odds at +135. You would need to wager $195 on Holmgren to win $100. A $100 bet on Wembanyama would win $135.
Only four other rookies are even on FanDuel’s board: Miami’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+4500), Detroit’s Ausar Thompson (+12000), Charlotte’s Brandon Miller (+20000) and Portland’s Scoot Henderson (+25000).
Of all the NBA’s individual awards, Holmgren’s lead in the Rookie of the Year race is the second largest only behind Tyrese Maxey’s campaign for Most Improved Player. The Philadelphia guard is -280 to win the award, followed by a huge gap. Houston’s Alperen Sengun has the second-best odds at +650.
Holmgren would be the Thunder’s first Rookie of the Year winner, and it would come off the heels of Jalen Williams’ second-place finish to Paolo Banchero a season ago.
Where Mike Gundy stands in bowl victories
Tom Osborne, Lou Holtz and Urban Meyer.
If OSU beats Texas A&M on Wednesday night in the Texas Bowl, Mike Gundy will join that trio of famed coaches with his 12th bowl victory.
Gundy, in his 19th season, has led the Cowboys to 18 consecutive bowl games — which is quite a streak in itself.
Gundy is 11-6 in bowl games. His 11 bowl wins are tied for ninth all time with Frank Beamer, Gary Patterson, Steve Spurrier, Dabo Swinney and Kyle Whittingham.
A 12th bowl win would tie Gundy for sixth on the all-time list:
1. Joe Paterno (24)
2. Bobby Bowden (22)
3. Nick Saban (19)
4. Bear Bryant (15)
5. Mack Brown (14)
Where OU, OSU rank in longest streak of bowl games
OU and OSU are bowling on back-toback days in the same state: OSU on Wednesday in Houston and OU on Thursday in San Antonio.
It’s a Texas two-step for a pair of schools that have been fixtures in bowl games.
OU is making its 25th consecutive bowl appearance, a streak that started in Bob Stoops’ inaugural 1999 season. Only Georgia (27) has a longer streak of consecutive bowl games.
OSU, with an 18-game streak of consecutive bowl games, is sixth on that list behind Georgia, OU, Wisconsin (22), Alabama (20) and Clemson (19). Seventh on the list is another OSU, Ohio State, with an 11-year streak.
Oklahoma State is 21-12 in bowl games, which is the best winning percentage (.636) of any program (minimum 30 bowls). OU is 31-24-1 (.556) in bowl games — a winning percentage that ranks eighth behind OSU, Georgia, Florida State, Alabama, USC, Penn State and Ole Miss (minimum 30 bowls played).
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman.
Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto @oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.