In third of U.S., more whites die than born

In around one-third of U.S. states, more white people are now dying than being born — a major shift that is expected to continue and has significant implications for government policy.

Seventeen states — home to 121 million people, or roughly 38 percent of the country’s p o p u l a t i o n — h a d more deaths than births among non-Hispanic whites in 2014, up from just four states a decade earlier, according to research released by the Universit y of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy.

White “natural decrease” — when births fail to keep up with deaths — is due largely to aging of the baby-boom generation and declining white fertility rates, particularly since the Great Reces- sion, the report found.

Nationally, the ratio of non-Hispanic white births to deaths is nearly at par, at 1.04 births for every death. The ratio is much higher for minority groups, particularly among Latinos, whose rate is 5.4 births for every death. The ratio for blacks is 1.94 births for every death, and for Asians, it is 1.75 births.

The influx of immigrants from minority groups, who tend to be in their childbearing years, helps fuel the birthrate.

The findings are particularly trenchant in the wake of an election that was often framed in terms of white Americans feeling threatened by the demographic ascendance of minority groups. While the country i s still about two-thirds white, the proportions are shifting. 2011 was the first year in which more minority babies than white ones were born, and demographers expect the country to become majority minority in 2044. (While Hispanics are considered a minority group in the United States, the term “Hispanic” refers to ethnic origin regardless of race.)

Its growing young immigrant population puts the U.S. on a different path than European countries, which are facing a looming crisis due to their aging populations. As aging white Americans rely more on Social Security and Medicare, they are expected to be shored up by the influx of young minorities into the workforce.

“What government and politicians need to pay attention to is that it’s the younger part of the population that’s going to be contributing to the economy,” said Bill Frey, demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institu- tion. “All of the growth in the labor force is going to be racial minorities. Investing in this next generation in terms of their education and being able to contribute to the labor force and pay into Social Security, Medicare, etc. is going to be to the benefit of that older white population.”

Despite the rapid shift in the number of states with white natural decrease, the absolute size of the non-Hispanic white population continues to be large in many parts of the U.S. The white share of the population fell from 79.6 percent in 1980 to 61.9 percent in 2014, according to the report. The Latino share rose from 6.4 percent to 17.3 percent during the same period.

“It is going to be a long time before the white people aren’t a very powerful political force,” Johnson said.