Heavy favorites don’t always blow out foes

Texans to play Brady, Patriots on road as 151/2-point underdogs.

Before this weekend, just five NFL playoff games since 1966 have featured a team favored by at least 15 points. Just one of those underdogs won the game (Google “Joe Namath” and Super Bowl III if you need more information on that).

Oddsmakers don’t think Brock Osweiler should guarantee the 15 ½ -point underdog Houston Texans can beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in New England on Saturday. In fact, even if Brady were not playing, the Patriots would be favored by nearly two touchdowns.

“Normally, he is worth six to seven points to the s p r e a d , d e p e n d i n g o n the opponent,” said Scott Cooley, spokesman for BookMaker, an offshore book and casino. “But in this situation it changes a bit because the Patriots have a very capable backup in Jimmy Garappolo, who we’ve seen perform well in meaningful games. If Brady wasn’t playing this weekend, we would make the Patriots 12- to 13-point favorites.”

The Patriots (14-2) beat the Texans 27-0 in Week 3 with third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett leading the way.

Brady, of course, will be under center against the Texans and he’s playing some of his best football. He’s taking nothing for granted because coach Bill Belichick wouldn’t

have it another way.

“There is nothing easy a b o ut t hi s g a me f o r our offense,” Brady said on WEEI radio in Boston.

Osweiler i s 1 - 0 agai nst Brady. Pey ton Manning’s former backup rallied Denver from a 21-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Patriots 30-24 in overtime last season.

But thi s i sn’t the same Osweiler — he was benched last month — and the Texans (10-7) are not last year’s Super Bowl champion Broncos.

The Patriots are used to double-digit point spreads in the playoffs.

They’ve been involved in the five largest spreads since 2000, according to Pro Football Reference.

They’re only 1-3 covering

the spread as favorites, but 3-1 in the won/loss column.

N e w E n g l a n d w a s a 14-point underdog when it upset the Rams in the 2002 Super Bowl. After going 16-0 in 2007, the Patriots failed to cover three times as favorites of 12 ½ or more in the playoffs.

They defeated the Jaguars and Chargers before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl.

In 2012, they whipped Tim Tebow and the Broncos 45-10 in the divisional round to cover a 13 ½ -point spread.

Pro Football Reference lists 59 double-digit favorites in playoff games since the Super Bowl began in January 1967.

The favorites are 33-25-1 against the spread and 47-12 straight up.